Ukraine lost 30% of equipment since the start of their offensive, 20% in the first two weeks.

 

Destroyed Bradly Fighting Vehicles and Leopard tanks. New York Times/Russian Defense Ministry.

Ukraine lost 30% of equipment since the start of their offensive, 20% in the first two weeks. New York Times. The rate of loss decreased as Ukraine switched from aggressive tactics that were causing massive casualties to more attritional warfare using artillery and drones. In two months the counter offensive has made only five miles of progress, far short of the 60 it was predicted to get. Much of the problem is the place Ukraine chose to attack as they area has been heavily mined and has caused major casualties for Ukraine's armor. Western provided weapons have taken heavy casualties with both Leopard tanks and Bradly Fighting Vehicles being destroyed or captured in large numbers. NATO officials downplayed the casualties saying the offensive could still succeed. 

Since the New York Times often paywalls their articles, here is another source from I24. 

My Comment:

All of this was well known to people who were even casually following the Ukraine War. Ukraine took such horrendous casualties that they were forced to switch tactics and basically canceled their offensive. They pulled back their armor and advanced with infantry, which caused tremendous casualties, which should be expected when you don't have armor and air support. 

What is important is that the New York Times, America's paper of record is admitting this. Most media outlets have been insanely pro-Ukraine to the point where they are ignoring reality. But now the evidence is so clear that even the New York Times has to admit the tremendous casualties Ukraine has taken in their offensive. 

Of course they are still downplaying things, having NATO and Ukrainian talking heads claiming that the offensive is still on and will succeed eventually. They play up the gift of cluster munitions but fail to mention why they were sent in the first place, they are the only 155mm rounds America has left to send. 

Ukraine switching tactics is a losing game as well. There was at least a small chance of a breakthrough when the offensive just started but now there is little chance of anything happening. With Ukraine now using "mosquito tactics" where unsupported infantry advances without armor casualties are growing. At least the armor provided protection for Ukrainian soldiers. 

And switching to attritional warfare? That's not going to work either. Russia has a dramatically larger population base to draw from and still has a million man reserve to draw from. Their industrial base is much larger and isn't anywhere near running out of resources, unlike the West. Indeed, switching to attritional warfare plays into Russia's hands as that has been their main strategy since the Kiev withdrawal. 

Mine warfare is a major reason why Ukraine failed. They just did not have the mine clearance to get through the tough defenses they were facing. I understand why they attacked where they did, they wanted to cut off Crimea which would have gotten them into stronger negotiating position, but it was probably always doomed to fail since they didn't have the ability to clear those mines. 

Either way, it appears that the war in Ukraine has moved on since the offensive. I am guessing that Ukraine will try to continue to advance, their funding depends on it, but they will end up taking further extreme casualties. But that will only happen in limited parts of the front with most lines remaining the static grinding warfare we have seen in Bakhmut.