US approves transfer of F-16s to Ukraine.

 

F-16s from the Netherlands. Reuters. 

The United States has approved a transfer of F-16s from The Netherlands and Denmark to Ukraine. Reuters. Ukraine wanted the fighters in an effort to break Russian air superiority which it has had since the start of the war. NATO has begun the process of training pilots and flight crew to fly and maintain F-16s and are expected to see results from the program in 2024. US officials have said off the record that the F-16s would not have helped Ukraine in this years summer offensive and will not be a gamechanger when they arrive due to strong Russian air defenses and air superiority. 

My Comment:

What a scam by the United States. This is only being done because it will force The Netherlands and Denmark to buy new fighter jets from the United States. That will be a nice bonus for American military companies but won't do a thing to actually help Ukraine. 

Indeed, by the time these fighter jets are delivered, assuming it actually happens, it's very possible Ukraine will have collapsed entirely. Ukraine has pretty much destroyed the third iteration of their army and has even deployed their reserves to their offensive, to the point where they have one US trained division left. Given that Russia has launched their own offensive Ukraine will either have to use that reserve division or pull troops off of the front line. 

Of course it's no sure thing that Ukraine would collapse by the time these F-16's are supposed to be delivered, but even then I don't think these fighters will actually be delivered. People are in general turning away from the war and eventually I think people are going to start questioning this huge weapons deliveries. 

And I still think that if F-16s are deployed they will be destroyed the same way other wunderwaffe have been in the Ukraine war. Deliveries of Leopard Tanks and Bradly Fighting Vehicles have ruined their reputations and will cause countries to think twice before buying them. The same thing will likely happen once the F-16s are deployed and that's a problem for Lockheed Martin. 

Should the F-16s actually be deployed I don't expect them to do much. Before anything else the problem is that there really isn't anywhere to operate these weapons from. Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's airfields and can do the same thing to any new bases these F-16's would be based at. 

Assuming that problem is somehow solved, how are the almost 50 year old fighters going to survive in a modern combat environment? Russia has very good air defenses and air superiority. F-16s have no stealth capabilities and will likely be outranged by Russian fighters. The only way they could be used is as stand off missile platforms and even that would take heavy casualties.