Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia seem to make little progress without Russian participation.

 

Representatives of the more than 40 countries at the peace talks. Reuters. 

Peace talks in Saudi Arabia to end the war in Ukraine seems to have made little progress without Russian participation. Reuters. 40 states participated in the talks including America, China, and India, along with many European countries. Ukraine said the meetings were to build support for their demands for ending the war, including the return of all captured territory. Russia laughed off the talks, calling the talks doomed and an effort to turn the global south against the war. Despite little progress for the talks, they are a win for Saudi Arabia, which was able to secure the participation of many countries including China.

My Comment:

Peace talks without the participation of one of the major belligerents can hardly be called peace talks. These talks were doomed the second it became obvious that Russia was not going to participate in them. Without Russia there was no chance at an actual peace deal. 

Not that a peace deal was likely in the first place. Ukraine is still demanding all of the territory taken by Russia, including Crimea. Taking the four oblast that Russia has integrated into their lands is a tall ask in the first place, but Crimea is totally off of the table. Protecting Crimea was a major reason for the war and there is no way that Russia would ever willingly give up that land. Ukraine can't seriously demand this and except any kind of response for Russia. 

Ukraine is also not in a position to bargain in the first place. Russia appears to be winning the war and Ukraine's much ballyhooed offensive has mostly failed. Far from reaching the Sea of Azov and cutting off Crimea, they haven't even punctured the first line of defense after two months of fighting! Russia has zero reason to give them anything. 

Indeed, the cracks are starting to show in the support of the war. Apologies in advance for linking to CNN, but their latest poll shows that 55% of Americans oppose more support for Ukraine and 51% say we have done enough to help them. As Ukraine's biggest backer it seems clear that the endless supply of arms and money from America will be cut off soon. 

And that's assuming that Ukraine doesn't just collapse in spite of western support. Their best divisions got mauled in their offensive and they can't have too much left in reserves. Morale is low and it's clear that their tactics are not working. Russia has a major military advantage in artillery, drones and air support and that won't be changing anytime soon. 

Ukraine could end the war if they would simply give up the territory that Russia demands but I doubt they will be allowed to do so. Ukraine and Russia almost ended the war when Russia was threatening Kiev but then the UK torpedoed the deal and the war has continued since then. I think if another deal was made the same thing would happen. And Russia has absolutely no reason to trust any deal made by the west. 

So why even have talks? The Saudis got a bit of prestige for pulling this off and have strengthened their links to the countries that were invited, including Ukraine and the United States. They probably knew that nothing much would come from this but it's good headlines for their country and that is something they need. And Ukraine? They get to look like they are serious about peace, even though they pretty obviously aren't. It will be enough to fool people that barely pay attention to the news.