Niger is mobilizing civilians due to fears of an invasion from ECOWAS

 

Mohamad Toumba, a coup member, addresses supporters. The Guardian/AP.

Niger is mobilizing civilians due to fears of an invasion from ECOWAS. The Guardian. ECOWAS, an alliance of West African States, have activated a "standby force" after an ultimatum to reverse the coup expired. The force has not yet been deployed. The coup members have asked for tens of thousands of recruits to help defend against any invasion from ECOWAS. ECOWAS is having a meeting to discuss what to do with the standby force though it is unclear what will happen after the meeting. Niger is also dealing with an Islamic Insurgency. In an attack on Niger forces 17 soldiers were killed by terrorists. 

My Comment:

Looks like the Niger situation is getting closer to open war. I don't think Niger would be mobilizing civilians if they didn't expect a major war breaking out. Perhaps this is just to try and deter and ECOWAS invasion, but that would not be my guess. 

The big question that ECOWAS has is if they are going to get support from the United States and France and if Niger is going to get support from Wagner mercenaries. Both the US and France have a major interest in Niger, with France mostly wanted to keep control of their former colonies. The United States supposedly wants to fight ISIS and other Islamist groups but it's really about keeping Russia out of Africa, a goal it has failed spectacularly at. 

Niger is seeking closer relationships with Russia and they could get support from Wagner mercenaries. Given the combat experience Wagner has in counter-insurgency and the real world experience they got fighting in Ukraine, they would be a valuable asset for Niger and would give ECOWAS pause. 

Keep in mind that Niger has allies in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea as well. Those countries all had coups as well and would not take kindly to an invasion to reverse a coup. They have already said that they may join the war if ECOWAS invades. 

Could a war still be avoided? Perhaps. I don't think France has it in them to fight in a major war right now. And the United States? I don't think most Americans can even find Niger on a map, let alone justify a war between America and the country. Indeed, war weariness is increasing even though we aren't actually involved in a war right now, at least not directly. People are sick and tired of giving money and weapons to Ukraine, I can't imagine they would be supportive of fighting a war in Africa for reasons that don't really make much sense. There also hasn't been the media buildup you would expect if a war was on the way, at least not here in America. 

Of course ECOWAS could go it alone and that would be interesting to say the least. It would be a real question if they could actually succeed in a war. Nigeria would be the key as they have the biggest and well trained military in the region, but they have their own problem with Islamic insurgents. And the rest of the ECOWAS alliance is split in two by Niger's allies. It would be a tall ask for them to succeed in Niger without western support. 

It's very possible they will go for it anyways. Like I said, I don't see Niger mobilizing civilians if they didn't know something is up. The coup seems fairly popular there and I don't buy the idea that they are doing this just to shore up the coup. It's very possible that a war is coming...