Own work.
It's very clear to me that things are not doing well in the United States right now. The economy is trashed, we are in a shooting war with Russia, our "president" wasn't elected fairly and is persecuting his main political opponent and everything is just falling apart.
I also have little faith in things turning around anytime soon. Even if Trump were to win in 2024 I don't think he can undo the massive damage the Biden administration has done. And him winning is a big ask, he not only has to survive until inauguration day, he also needs to overcome the voter fraud and media bias to actually win and even then it's no guarantee that the country doesn't fall apart before he takes office and could begin to turn things around. And it's not like any of the other GOP candidates don't face the same uphill battle he would. And there is zero hope of an outsider candidate defeating Biden in the primary, it won't e allowed to happen. Just ask Bernie Sanders.
So what does this have to do with me? I've been saving for a new house for awhile now and I have saved a year's salary. Unfortunately, due to massive demand in my area and the increasing interest rates I don't feel that much closer to actually being able to afford a decent house anytime soon. If things don't fall apart, I should be able to afford a house in a couple of years assuming I keep up the savings.
But I am starting to wonder if that's the wrong thing to do. If things are really going to get as bad as I think they are going to get is saving up money for a house the right thing to do? Will the money I have saved even be relevant if the world falls apart?
The problem is that there are so many scenarios that it's hard to actually predict what is going to happen. It's clear that America is in trouble but how much and in what form? And what you should do in each scenario is different...
For example, in a nuclear war with Russia or China scenario (both of which are very plausible) preparing for it would be pretty much useless unless I were to move out of my current area. Northeast Wisconsin would almost certainly be targeted due to the multiple strategic assets found in the region. Green Bay is a major port, Oshkosh makes MRAPS and other vehicles, Marinette makes ships. Even Appleton wouldn't escape since they have a factory that makes firetrucks, which could be converted to military vehicles.
In that scenario the right thing to do would be to go full hedonist, just doing whatever I wanted and spending all the money I have since it won't do any good if I'm vaporized in a nuclear attack. I mean, I guess I could move to somewhere that isn't going to get nuked but I don't know if a year's salary is enough to do that. Of course if a nuclear war doesn't happen and you bet on it wrong, you would have wasted all your money and would be dramatically worse off.
But saving my money for a new house could be the wrong move as well. If hyperinflation comes, which is very possible, then saving money is the worst thing you could possibly do. All of a sudden all the saving and scrimping would be utterly pointless as all that money would be practically worthless. Buying a home early that I can't really afford would be the best idea possible since my payments would be fixed as the worth of money declines rapidly.
What if it's a civil war or "day of the jackboot" scenario? Then I should be buying more guns, ammo and body armor. And even then is no sure thing. If a war happens there is no guarantee that my state will be a battlefield and it could end up like Ukraine where people are partying at the pool while people are dying in droves at the front line. If things are so bad in a 2nd American Civil War where someone like me is on the front lines, then what's the point of preparing anyways? And there is no guarantee that I would be a priority for the feds if they decide to crack down on everyone that disagrees with them. There would be a lot of people in line before they got to me since my social media following is small. The guns and ammo would be more about protecting myself from raiders and anarchy, not fighting back against the feds.
Saving money might be the right idea though if we have a non-inflation style economic collapse. My job should be safe in that scenario and I could take advantage of a housing collapse by getting a house a lot cheaper than I would now. Since I consider this to be the most likely scenario, it's the one I'm currently counting on. But if I am wrong?
The final possibility I have thought of is the long slow decline, which means I should actually be investing that money in the stock market. Despite things doing extremely poorly on Main Street right now but Wall Street is still kicking, if my 401k is any indication. If the economic collapse is still 10 or 20 years in the future I should be able to make some money, at least more than the pathetic amount I am getting in bank interest. That would give me a good nest egg and would give me a good chance at getting a decent house.
I do have to say that I am angry about all of this uncertainty. I just wish whatever is going to happen would happen (unless it's the nuke scenario for pretty obvious reasons). At this point I'm still a relatively young man and if it happens soon I can still rebuild afterwards when it ends. But the older I get the more that window closes...
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