ISIS has doubled the amount of territory they control in Mali in less than a year

 

A sign saying "welcome to the Islamic State of Gao. Al Jazeera/AP.

ISIS has doubled the amount of territory they control in Mali in less than a year. Al-Jazeera. The 2020 coup in Mali has destroyed a peace agreement and allowed both ISIS and al-Qaeda to regain territory in the country. Mali is doing little against the ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates, largely because the two groups also fight each other. Mali has kicked out a UN peacekeeping force that spent a decade fighting both Islamic insurgencies. 

My Comment:

ISIS and al-Qaeda have a long history in Africa and had largely been contained by French efforts in West Africa. Those efforts have largely ended now as many of the countries involved have kicked out France, including Mali. 

This has left an opening for ISIS and al-Qaeda to regroup and retake territory. Indeed, West Africa is one of the few places where those groups are still powerful. Indeed, the main problem for both groups is that they keep getting in their own way, ISIS and al-Qaeda have been at each others throats since ISIS was formed in Syria. If they could get over their rivalry they could unite and then be a serious threat. 

I do think that these terror groups are taking advantage of the general chaos that is happening Africa. Indeed that has been their playbook that has repeated again and again. When there are wars and revolutions in the Islamic world ISIS and al-Qaeda ends up taking advantage. It happened in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Nigeria and it could happen in Mali again. 

And the opportunity for these groups? It will be growing immensely if the war between Niger and its allies and the ECOWAS economic alliance happens. Indeed, I have seen no evidence that a war between the two groups is going to be avoided. War certainly seems to be coming and Mali, a major ally of Niger, will be in the thick of it. They aren't doing much to fight these terror groups anyways but if a major war breaks out they will be doing even less. 

So are we going to see a situation like we saw in Iraq and Syria last decade where ISIS and al-Qaeda were able to take over vast amounts of territory and fund terror attacks throughout the world? It certainly is possible. War is absolutely coming and when it does there will be an opening. The only real problem is both groups are fighting each other but that probably isn't that big of a deal in the end. 

I have been saying for awhile now that I was expecting ISIS and/or al-Qaeda to make a resurgence. ISIS has largely fallen away from the news but they are still out there and still a threat. But the entire world is focused on Ukraine and we have depleted our stocks of weapons. If ISIS does manage to make a resurgence it might be awhile before they are dealt with...