A war in Africa over Niger is growing more and more likely.

 

Troops from Nigeria, like the above soldiers, would be the primary force in any military intervention. DW/Reuters.

A war in Africa is becoming more and more likely as diplomatic efforts to reverse the coup have failed. DW. ECOWAS, an economic alliance of West African states, threatened military action if the coup wasn't reversed by Sunday, a deadline which has already passed. Chances of a military intervention are high due to US support for the war, largely to counter Russian moves in the region and the threat of Jihadists. A war would be difficult though as Niger has allies in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea. Nigeria would have to be the backbone of any invasion of Niger as they have over 200,000 troops along with modern fighter jets and helicopters. However, Nigeria is dealing with their own Jihadist insurgency from Boko Haram. Niger has the advantage of having a large, American trained, army of their own and are very experienced in fighting due to counter-insurgency operations against Jihadists and would expect military support from Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea. 

My Comment:

American efforts to reverse the coup were rejected by the coup members. Victoria Nuland, warmonger and Ukraine war architect, was laughed out of the country after demanding to see the former president. Niger appears pretty confident that they can hold onto power and aren't interested in what the United States has to offer. 

With ECOWAS calling for war with the backing of the United States and France I don't see how a war can be avoided at this point. The coup plotters have little reason to back down and neither does ECOWAS. There have been military interventions against coups in the alliance before and it certainly can happen again. 

Which side wins is far from clear. Nigeria is probably the most formidable army in the region but they are fighting Boko Haram which is no joke. None of the other ECOWAS countries are as powerful as Nigeria is and they are cut in two by Niger's military alliance, that includes Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso. 

Niger has a decent army as well and they are backed by the other countries. Mali's military appears to be a joke but Guinea is decent enough and Burkina Faso has a few troops as well. They may also have some support from Russia which could be a gamechanger for them. 

It might come down to if France and the United States join the war. Both countries have significant forces in Niger already and can call up more if needed. Doing so, with the backing of Nigeria and the other ECOWAS countries would make me think that Niger is in big trouble. 

Still, another major war is the last thing the world needs and I doubt there would be much support for a military intervention in the United States or France. Americans are war weary and are sick of the billions of dollars were are sending to Ukraine, I can't imagine they would support another war of choice over a part of the world they don't care about at all.