A truck bomb exploded on the critical Kerch Bridge, which supplied Russian troops and civilians in Crimea. Politico. The bomb killed three people and caused a span of the vehicle portion of the bridge to collapse. It also caused a train fuel tanker to burst into flames. Russia has already reopened the undamaged section of the bridge and will be sending trains through soon as well. Kiev hasn't taken responsibility for the attack but Russia is blaming them for it. The bridge is a critical pipeline for supplying both Russian troops in southern Ukraine as well as the many civilians who live in Crimea. The attack is a major escalation in the course of the war.
WATCH: Moment of massive explosion on Crimea's Kerch bridge. This is the only bridge to connect Russia to Crimea
— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 8, 2022
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My Comment:
This is the 2nd major attack on Russian infrastructure in recent memory and one that could be even more significant than the bombing of Nordstream. The Kerch bridge is Russia's main supply route, not only to Crimea, but to the front in Ukraine. The attempt to destroy it means that the gloves are probably going to come off from the Russian side now.
What is surprising to me is that the bombing appears to be a suicide bombing. At the very least the driver of the truck did not survive, and neither did the people in the vehicles that were unlucky enough to be close to it. It's not clear if the driver was even in on the operation, it's possible that he was an innocent person that just happened to be unlucky enough to pick up the wrong load. But if he was aware of what was happening it's a major concern that Ukraine is now resorting to ISIS style suicide attacks.
Was the bridge a military target? Kind of. It certainly was being used to transport weapons and troops over. But it was also a major civilian road too and it's clear that the Russians in Crimea would have been screwed had the bombing destroyed the whole bridge. But given the fact that Russia was using the bridge to transport troops, it was probably fair game, ignoring the horrible way they pulled off the attack.
Of course just because a target is fair game does not mean it is wise to make an attack there. The Kerch Bridge has huge symbolic importance to the Russians as well, and Russia will be furious that there was an attempt to cut of civilians from the supplies they need from Russia. It's also important to note that even the Biden White House thought attacking the Kerch Bridge was a bad idea, that's why they didn't allow Ukraine to use the HIMARS MLRS against it.
I also have to point out that this attack failed in its objective. Traffic is still going through the bridge, both on the vehicle portion and the rail portion. Only a span or two collapsed and it shouldn't be that difficult to replace it. Given the blowback I would say that this attack was not worth it for that reason alone.
Russia is sure to respond against this, my guess by targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Russia has been fighting this war with their hands tied behind their back and I think that due to this attack and the attack against the Nord Stream pipelines, that is going to change. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainian bridges, pipelines, railways and highways will be attacked in return.
Regardless, the Ukraine conflict is spiraling out of control. Russia is playing for keeps and once they get their troops organized, I am expecting a rather large offensive, and one where the Russians will no longer be screwing around. Once the troops they mobilized reach the front lines, they will likely finally outnumber the Ukrainians, which was a huge reason why the Ukrainians have have success in taking back territory.
Given the chance of a nuclear conflict in this war, I think it's high time that the diplomats are again allowed to do their work. It's clear that things are not going well there in general and the longer the war goes on the worse it would be. But other than Elon Musk, nobody seems to be trying to make this happen. And honestly, I am so pessimistic about it, it's the reason I didn't even bother to write a post up yesterday. I'm afraid that this is all going to get so much worse before it gets better...
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