Russia and the United States have had high level phone calls to discuss rumors of a false flag dirty bombing in Ukraine. Fox News. Russian Defense Minster Sergei Shoigu called Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin twice in the past three days to discuss the issue. Shoigu also contacted his counterparts in France, the United Kingdom and Turkey as well. Most governments denied claims of a dirty bomb attack, with Ukraine saying that if an explosion were to happen, Russia would be responsible for it.
My Comment:
This is a fairly disturbing accusation and one that would have extreme consequences if it were to come to pass. If a dirty bomb attack were to occur it would probably justify the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. That, of course, is an extremely bad thing, even if it doesn't end up with a full nuclear exchange between the West and Russia.
I mostly want to dismiss this out of hand. I can't imagine that Ukraine would use a dirty bomb on their own people. I think they are evil enough to do so, obviously, but they would gain almost nothing from it. First of all, I don't think that Ukraine has access to nuclear materials. They would need to secure that first before they even had a chance to use a dirty bomb. And if they did have the weapon, why would they use it on their own people instead of Russia? It doesn't make much sense. It's not like they can get any more sympathy from the Western press, who are already fully committed to them.
Of course, Russia doing it doesn't make any sense either. I think the idea is that they want this to happen so they can use tactical nukes to blunt the Kherson offensive. That doesn't make sense to me because Russia is preparing for a huge offensive in the north. Plus winter is coming soon, so that will probably slow or stop the Kherson offensive. Tactical nukes seem fairly unnecessary in that case.
And it makes zero sense for either side to do this due to the possibility of the entire situation spiraling into a full scale nuclear war. Indeed, it makes little difference who is responsible for a dirty bomb attack if it results in a major nuclear exchange, or even just the use of tactical nuclear weapons. At that point all bets are off.
Of course, this analysis depends on everyone involved being a rational actor. I don't think that is the case. Zelenskyy is unhinged enough to try something like this, and I also think most of the West's leaders are certifiably insane as well, with Biden being the worst of all. Putin seems more rational, but that's a comparative thing. If this story is based on nothing it does not speak well to the paranoia of the leadership of Russia.
If there is any good news about this it's that the leadership of the West and Russia is at least trying to talk to each other. A couple of phone calls won't do much to end the war but it was better than the previous status quo where neither side was talking to each other. The circumstances aren't great but talking is better than fighting.
Still, I think the war in Ukraine has gone on far too long and for this very reason. Neither side has gotten the quick victory they assumed they were getting in the first place. And despite the insistence of radicals on both sides, the war is mostly a stalemate, despite the money, equipment and people thrown into the meatgrinder. The longer it goes on, the more possible it is that one or both sides do something stupid to try and break the stalemate...
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