Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has taken credit for a pair of car bombings in Mogadishu Somalia that has killed at least 100 people. Fox News. 300 people were also wounded by the attack that targeted the Ministry of Education. The Pentagon says that al-Shabaab is the most active of al-Qaeda's affiliates. Somalia's new President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has declared "total war" on al-Shabaab. The attack is the most deadly in Somalia since a 2017 bombing in the same location killed 500 people. The United States has been bombing the terror group but the group persists.
My Comment:
Somalia has a long history of terrible bombings like this and this attack is just another one. Indeed, Somalia has been a mess for pretty much all of my life. It's one of the most dangerous countries in the world and al-Shabaab is one of the main reasons, but far from the only one.
Al-Shabaab is indeed the most dangerous al-Qaeda affiliate, and probably the only relevant one. AQAP isn't really that relevant anymore, despite the war in Yemen and AQIM is still somewhat active in Africa, but not as much as they used to be. And core al-Qaeda? They are pretty much a joke now with most of their leadership dead or imprisoned.
But al-Shabaab? They are a major terror group that has many of these huge attacks under their belt. And not only in Somalia, they have also hit Kenya as well. They are a powerful and effective terror group and it is lucky that they are not a major threat to Europe right now. They could become such a threat at some point but it would probably take awhile to do so.
I know that Somalia's president has declared total war against al-Shabaab but I don't expect too much to come from it. Somalia does not have a large or effective military and simply aren't competent enough to destroy a major terror group like this. Plus, Somalia has so many other problems to deal with I don't know if they can deal with a major war at the same time.
The Biden administration has attempted to combat al-Shabaab but it does not seem to have done much. We have some 500 troops in Somalia in a training mission and we regularly bomb and drone strike al-Shabaab but so far we haven't been able to destroy them. And I don't see us doing so. Even with this terrible bombing we simply don't have the will or the resources to do so.
Why? Because Ukraine has become such a massive distraction we aren't doing much else. Imagine if we had given even a fraction of those weapons we have given to Ukraine to Somalia instead. Sure, they wouldn't need to heavy arms but they could be doing something with the artillery and small arms we have given Ukraine. And unlike the Russians, al-Shabaab could indeed become a threat to America. If Somalia were to fall entirely, which isn't likely, al-Shabaab could use the country as a base to launch attacks outside of Somalia.
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