Democrats are admitting that their midterm hopes are failing, with a red wave possible.

 

The US House. Politico/Getty. 

The Democrats are now admitting that their midterm hopes are failing with a red wave possible. Politico. Recent polling has Republicans beating Democrats on generic polling by 2-5 points as Joe Biden's approval rating has dropped as well. Voters cite high gas prices, out of control prices and a stagnant economy as high importance issues. The Democrats had hoped that the overturn of Roe v Wade would help but only 5 percent of voters cited that as their most important issue. Most Democrats have written off the House and consider a 50/50 split at the Senate the best possible outcome. 

My Comment:

The media and the Democrats themselves are now saying that the Democrats are in deep trouble for 2022. The party will almost certainly lose the House and I would not be surprised if they lost the Senate as well. I never believed that the summer jump in polling was anywhere close to being a real thing. 

Why? Much of it is the Economy. Obviously, things aren't going well right now in the United States to say the least. Everyone is reminded of high gas prices and inflation every time they leave the house and many of us have seen our investments take a hit as well. And I know at my work they are cracking down on overtime and there is even talk of cutting hours to 32 hours a week, which our competitor across town has already done. 

I do have to say that gas prices have actually gone down again after a recent spike. A few weeks ago it was close to $4 a gallon again, but now it has gone back to around $3.50. Wisconsin might be an outlier here and it's not like $3.50 gas is exactly cheap. 

Abortion was never the motivator that the Democrats thought it was. The problem is that the people that were most motivated about it live in solid blue areas. People in red states are actually happy it's gone away and many of them will vote for Republicans to reward them for actually getting Roe v Wade repealed. And I think that the vast majority of people who aren't hardcore pro-life or pro-choice don't actually care about the issue at all. 

I do think that the Politico piece downplayed a few things. The first is the very obvious and incredibly impactful problem that is Joe Biden. Biden is a deeply unpopular president who many people simply can't stand. Even people who approve of his polices, who aren't that common, are turned off by his behavior and it seems as though some of his scandals are finally getting coverage. But even if they weren't the Democrats would still have a major problem with Biden as his approval rate is absolutely terrible. 

I also think that the Democrats are focusing on deeply unpopular things. Much of their woke policies are incredibly divisive at best and some are so far beyond the pale (like pushing trans ideology on school children) that people are getting to be utterly disgusted with them. 

And I can't imagine that spending so much time on January 6th has done them any favors. It seems like one of those classic things that the politicians care about deeply but everyone else is either indifferent on or completely disagree with the conclusions that the Democrats made. I know I have had talks with people and they are either sick and tired of hearing about it or actively wish that the incident was an actual insurrection and wish it had succeeded. 

Of course, historically, the ruling party has had massive problems during midterms. Presidents usually lose seats in the House and Senate during midterms and I doubt this year will be any different. And that's under normal circumstances, 2022 is anything but normal. 

The elephant in the room though is election security. There has been some efforts in red states to try and prevent the idiocy that happened in 2020 so some of the worst abuses may no longer be possible. And the thing to remember with voter fraud and other forms of election interference is that they only really work in a close election. That's why Trump won in 2016, the election wasn't close enough for fraud to work without it being extremely obvious and I think we are heading towards a similar outcome in 2022. 

Finally, I think the real question isn't whether the Democrats lose the House and Senate, but by how much. There is a limit on how many seats in the Senate the Republicans can pick up but the House has all members up for grabs and it could end up with a major upset there. I think a narrow win in the Senate is the most likely scenario, but I would not be surprised if the GOP takes more seats in the house.