Are we heading to a nuclear war with Russia?

 

Own work. 

In the past few days a few prominent US politicians have raised the specter of nuclear war with Russia. I will post the comments made by Tulsi Gabbard and Donald Trump below, but are they right? Are we on a path to a nuclear war?

 

Trump on Ukraine: "We must demand the immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine or we will end up in World War Three. And there will be nothing left of our planet -- all because stupid people didn't have a clue... They don't understand the power of nuclear." pic.twitter.com/sCAqUVhQQl

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) October 9, 2022

I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are… pic.twitter.com/oAuTnxZldf

— Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 (@TulsiGabbard) October 11, 2022

Biden, for his part, disagrees. He says he doesn't think Vladimir Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He says that Putin is a rational actor and that implies that it would be irrational for Putin to use these weapons. For once, I do agree with Biden here, I don't see Putin using nukes in the short term. 

Why? Because the war isn't going that badly for Russia. Indeed, they appear to be preparing for a major attack and opening up a 2nd major front. This attack from Belarus, which potentially will include troops from Russia's ally, will likely end Ukraine's offensives and may even force them to withdraw. I don't think that the move will lead to a total victory for Russia, but I do think that it will change the momentum in the war. 

I can only see Russia using nuclear weapons if they are losing and right now they are far from that. Crimea is not under threat and Russian forces are stable and not in danger of a route. If both of those things were not true I could see Russia using tactical nukes to beat back the Ukrainians. But as of right now neither of them are even close to being true. 

And it's important to note that a nuclear strike in Ukraine does not necessarily mean a nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia. Indeed, there is nothing that says the United States has to respond to that at all, though Biden would be under pressure to do so. And if it does happen, the response would likely be conventional. 

But I think the people that say that Russia would not respond to a conventional attack on their forces by American troops with all out nuclear war are pretty much completely disconnected from reality. If America does attack Russian forces, Russia would risk being totally defenseless and getting routed in Ukraine. I think they would have to respond with their nuclear weapons. And then it's World War III. 

I also think that the chances of nuclear war are higher because of these high tensions. There is always a chance of a random unlucky incident happening. There is always a chance of an air-to-air collision or some other kind of random skirmish that results in all out war. 

Leadership is a big problem now. If something does happen I have zero faith in Joe Biden to do the right thing. Indeed, I think he would fail where previous presidents would have succeeded. Remember, Barack Obama allegedly said "never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up" and I think it's totally true. Biden just isn't capable enough to navigate such a conflict. 

In the past I have said we were closer to nuclear war than we were at anytime since the Able Archer crisis back in 1983. I think we may have surpassed it now, simply because Biden is so incompetent and our diplomats are so out to lunch. I don't think we are at Cuban Missile Crisis levels yet, but we are getting closer everyday. 

Of course there is an obvious off ramp and it's so simple that it's infuriating that it isn't being tried. We have an entire State Department full of diplomats that could be used right now to not only reduce tensions with Russia, but also end the war in Ukraine. They could do it today if they simply organized a cease fire and decided to give Russia some of their demands. But they won't because they are fools... 

Still, though tensions are high and war is more likely than it has been in a long time, I still don't think it will happen in the short term. Like I said, the war in Ukraine would have to be going way worse for the Russians before they would even consider a nuclear strike and even then it might not lead to a full nuclear exchange. I am not happy that the chances are as high as they are, but I am also not too concerned in the short term. But long term? Who knows?