France says they would not use nuclear weapons against Russia if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

 

Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron. Business Insider/Reuters.

French leader Emmanuel Macron has said that France would not use nuclear weapons against Russia in retaliation for any nuclear strike against Ukraine. Business Insider. Macron said that France's nuclear doctrine would not allow a strike under those circumstances. The tone is dramatically different than the United States and the United Kingdom who have not made their nuclear stance clear and have vowed "severe consequences" if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Macron also said he did not want a nuclear war on Twitter. 

We do not want a World War.

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) October 13, 2022

My Comment:

Finally, a tiny bit of sanity from a world leader over Ukraine. At the very least this means that France won't be the ones that start World War III. I posted yesterday that I was concerned about a full scale nuclear war between Russia and the west, and though I don't find it extremely likely, I said we are closer to it than we have been at anytime since the Cuban Missile crisis. 

Macron stated the obvious, France has a defensive policy and would not launch nukes because Ukraine got attacked. Supposedly the only countries with a no first use policy are India and China, but France's nuclear forces are defensive. They also have no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine, which is extremely obvious. 

Of course, in a full scale nuclear exchange between Russia and France, I don't think France would do well. France only has a few nukes, mostly based on submarines or aircraft. Russia has them massively outnumbered and outgunned. I know people like to downplay Russia's strength, but they have ICBM's and France does not. 

France also has little at stake when it comes to Ukraine. Even if Ukraine were to fall and Russian divisions were to steamroll over Europe, they still have all of eastern Europe and Germany in the way of the Russians. And that scenario is pretty unlikely to say the least. They also haven't given as much as other countries in Europe to Ukraine. They don't seem skeptical but they do seem to realize they are in financial difficulties and that it doesn't make sense to mortgage their future just in order to mildly inconvenience Russia. 

That doesn't mean that I don't think there is a scenario where France and Russia nuke each other. We don't know what the United States or the United Kingdom would do if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine and if they decide to use them in response than France might tag along for the ride, whether they want to or not. That's the problem with being a junior partner in an alliance like NATO, the US can do whatever they want and they kind of have to follow them. 

I do have to say it's somewhat refreshing to hear a world leader say something sane about Ukraine. I don't have to say how poorly I think of Joe Biden's Ukraine policy and most of Europe is just as bad. In short, Ukraine is not and will never be worth risking a nuclear war with Russia. I just wish that the rest of the world leaders would say the same thing Macron has said today.