Members of the House Progressive Caucus released a letter saying that Joe Biden should negotiate the end to the war in Ukraine with Russia before walking it back almost immediately. Politico. The letter was written in June and was released this week. The letter caused a backlash among Democrats who have been in lockstep in support of the war, which may spiral into a nuclear conflict. Pramila Jayapal retracted the letter under pressure saying it was a "distraction" and that she didn't want to be compared to Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, who said that funding for the war could be pulled under a Republican congress. Many of the people who signed the letter also walked back their support of it.
The original letter can be found here.
My Comment:
The letter released by the progressives in Congress was one of the few sensible things that anyone has put out about the war in Ukraine. Indeed, I was surprised that something so sensible and obvious that came from them. Of course, with this being the Democrats, the second someone said something sensible they had to walk it back...
I have been saying since Russia withdrew from the Kiev front that the war would most likely end in a negotiated settlement. Neither side is strong enough to utterly destroy the other and though I think Russia is doing much better than the West is willing to recognize or admit, I still don't think they can take all of Ukraine. And even with major support, Ukraine cannot possibly take back all the territory Russia has taken. It's just not possible baring some kind of unprecedented total collapse of one of the sides.
The risks of not stopping the war are extreme. The longer the war goes on and the longer it goes on without a major breakthrough the better the chances of things spiraling out of control. There are already rumors of a false flag dirty bomb attack being planned by somebody (both sides accuse each other). And there is always the chance that the Ukrainians pull of some major terror attack or Russia decides to use nukes and then everything gets very bad very fast.
And I think we are reaching the limits of what Americans and Europeans are willing to accept in terms of economic damage. It's going to be an extremely cold winter in Europe without Russian energy and rationing has even begun for fuel oil in the Northeastern United States. We have been giving Ukraine a blank check, depleting our stock of arms and for what? A few dead Russians and miles of regained territory, all of which may be lost when Russia starts their new offensive in the North? It's not worth it.
I do think that the Democrats do have a point that a settlement will be difficult to arrange. Putin isn't likely to accept a negotiated settlement at the moment as, like I said, he's expecting a major new offensive which may be backed by Belarus. And Zelenskyy? I can't see him backing down as I think he's basically insane now. None of his actions make even a lick of sense.
With that being said, wars have been stopped by diplomats before and even an attempt might reduce tensions quite a bit even if it doesn't end the war quickly. Anything that reduces the temperature is a good thing. And I do think that the war could end this way. From what I understand the initial talks between Russia and Ukraine were making progress but were torpedoed by former UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson on behalf of the United States. If an actual effort was made for peace I think it's very possible that the war will end.
I don't think anything will happen until after the November elections here in the United States. With the Democrats looking to everyone that they will be wiped out, I think that they will be forced to rethink pretty much all of their policies. And the Republicans seem to be sick and tired of unlimited spending on Ukraine. When that happens I think that there will be intense pressure on Biden to send in the diplomats...
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