China is angry over a major defense giveaway to Taiwan in a proposed Senate bill.

Nancy Pelosi during her visit to Taiwan. AP

China is angry over a major defense bill that would provide billions of dollars in military aid to Taiwan, which has gotten out of committee in the Senate. AP. China accused the United States of violating it's "one China" policy and has lodged serious complaints with Washington. The bill, co-sponsored by Republican Lindsay Graham and Democrat Bob Menendez, would provide billions of dollars in military aid. They say that this would reduce tensions in the region as it would make any invasion by China too expensive in lives and money to be considered. It is unclear if the bill will make it into law as it has to pass both the house and a potential veto from Joe Biden. 

My Comment:

The reporting on this bill has been pretty terrible. I can't get a good handle on how much this bill would cost the American taxpayer. Some sources say $4.5 billion while others say $6.5 billon. The AP article I used as a source didn't say either way. You would think something as basic as the actual cost of the bill wouldn't be the hard to figure out, but apparently it is.  

There is a real question though if this makes it into law in its current form. There was some opposition in the senate panel with a few senators saying no. Will it pass in the house? I would think so. If there is one thing that both Democrats and Republicans in the house agree on it's wasting taxpayer dollars on foreign governments. 

I do think that there is a good chance that Biden vetoes this if it reaches his desk. Biden is not a China hawk at all and does not seem to want to antagonize the communist country. I don't believe that he even approved Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan so I doubt he would sign this bill if it reaches him. And if he does veto the real question is if the senators can overcome the veto.

What is my take on this? I've got mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, I have always agreed with the one China policy but I think everyone else gets the capital of China wrong. The only legit Chinese government is the one centered in Taipei. The communist government dictatorship in China is an evil government and I would love to see it fall (but to be fair, I can say the same thing about our government under the Biden regime). 

And I think there is an argument to be made that Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is actually a strategic asset for the United States. We have outsourced many of our critical computer manufacturing to the state and it serves as a pretty formidable buffer for China's ambitions in the Pacific Ocean. If Taiwan were strong enough to defend itself from a Chinese invasion it would be a good thing. 

But the problem is that the timing for this is off. We are not in a position to threaten China, due to our insane Ukraine policy. If China decides to go to war with Taiwan right now, I am not sure we would be able to defend them, given how much of our arms and ammo got sent to Ukraine. And even if war doesn't break out it will strengthen the link between Russia and China, that is already close to becoming a de facto alliance. 

There is also the fact that we simply can't keep sending billions of dollars to foreign countries anymore. We aren't paying for it in any meaningful way, we are just printing and borrowing money and that isn't sustainable anymore. Plus doing so causes inflation, which is already killing this country on main street and even Wall Street.

I also don't know that this money will do much long term. American military power is clearly in a decline while China is growing their power dramatically. Right now I think that a war with China is no clear win for the United States and that's mostly because China hasn't finished building warship and transports to invade Taiwan. That will change in the near future and after it happens there is no guarantee that America wins that war. Even if Taiwan were to have modern US weapons this bill would provide it probably wouldn't be enough. 

Of course the whole discussion will probably be moot if the economy of both the United States and China collapses, which looks fairly likely. Both countries appear to be heading to a major recession, if not a 2nd Great Depression. I would think in that case the entire situation would change enough that people wouldn't care anymore, but who knows. After all, World War II followed the Great Depression...