The New York Times admits that the 2022 polling for the midterm elections could be off.

 

270 to win graphic showing the senate seats up for grabs as well as polling averages. 

The New York Times has admitted that polling for the 2022 midterm elections could be off. The New York Times. Polling during the 2020 race was dramatically off in many states, including many that have active senate races in 2022, most notably in Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina. One possible reason is the hostility Republicans have to polling companies, as they see them as biased. Recent polling suggests that the Democrats would narrowly lose the house but would keep the senate by a seat or two. However, it is possible that polls are over correcting in the other direction to correct this. 

My Comment:

Looks like the New York Times are covering their bets here. I am guessing that they probably understand that the Democrats are going to lose both the house and senate, along with several governor's races. They don't want Democratic voters to get cocky and not show up on election day. So they are pointing out the obvious fact that polling has been garbage lately. 

That isn't to say that I think that the election is a lock for the Republicans. I do think it's pretty obvious that they will control the house when this is all said and done, but the senate is more up in the air. The quality of candidates in some states is pretty low, the only reason Dr. Oz has a chance at all is that his opponent is a guy that lives in his parents basement and is so stroked out that he can't even debate. 

Another issue is that Republicans seem to have abandoned the themes that got them a fairly surprising victory in Virginia and a narrow defeat in New Jersey in 2021. They have decided that the economy is the only thing that matters and are ignoring the hot button social issues that drove Governor Glenn Youngkin into power in Virginia. 

The Virginia election was about schools and that is something that the Republicans could have pushed for. Obviously people were disgusted by the pushing of LGBT agendas over all other concerns in the state, but it's not coming up much in the congressional campaign. Crime too is a huge issue, as we saw with the recent horrible crimes in Memphis the past week. But again, the focus has been on the economy. 

I do think that the economy is a huge weakness for the Democrats as inflation, high gas prices and general financial misery are totally their fault. But I don't know if voters are actually going to buy that the Republicans are going to do anything different than the Democrats on the issue. Nobody is brave enough to say "hey, let's stop spending billions of dollars on Ukraine and stop giving out handouts", instead the Republicans will probably push for another tax cut, which won't help much. Plus, one of the worst parts of the economy, high gas prices, have decreased, largely because of lockdowns in China, the emptying of our strategic reserves and reduced demand due to economic slowdown. 

With that being said, I think the case for a Democratic Senate is overstated. I do think the argument that the polling is off in many of these states is correct. I know at least in my state there is little apatite for Mandela Barns. In my travels this week, I have seen many signs for Ron Johnson (and our likely next governor Tim Michaels) but none for Barns. Johnson has some problems but I just don't see any enthusiasm for Barns whatsoever. Assuming there aren't any election night shenanigan's like the ones that plagued the state in 2020, I think Johnson will win. 

I also think that the Democrats are putting all their hopes on the Roe v Wade decision being overturned. I personally think much of the outrage over that has been overstated and in most cases people have stopped caring. And though I do think that the people that are upset about it will vote, but I also think that they are the people that were always going to vote Democrat anyways. Plus, I think it's very possible that the issue will push Republicans to vote as well since for the first time in a long time, the party actually did something their base wanted for years. 

I won't do a full prediction on all the states but I am guessing that the Republicans will probably win the Senate and will do better in the House than they are predicted to. I think it is going to be a very narrow win, or even status quo ante with a divided senate, but I really don't think that the Democrats are going to hold on. 

My reason for thinking so? Ruling parties almost always lose seats in both chambers when the midterm elections happen. It's happened in pretty much every election I remember, with it happening to both Obama and Trump. And when the supposed president is polling in the mid to upper thirties in approval rating? That's a horrible sign. The damage to the Democrats will be limited due to the makeup of the seats up for grabs, but still, something would have to go pretty wrong for the Democrats to keep the Senate. 

Of course that assumes that the elections even matter anymore. We saw in 2020 that the media, big tech and the federal government pulled out all the stops to prevent Donald Trump from getting the 2nd term he so richly deserved. House elections are a lot harder to compromise but with Senate races being state wide, it's very possible that the count stops that Tuesday night and someone magically finds tens of thousands of ballots at 4:00 AM again...