Russia will call up 300,000 reserves for the war in Ukraine.

 

Vladimir Putin announces the call up. Russian Presidential Press Service via AP.

Russia will call up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine in a partial mobilization. AP. Russia has not deployed too many troops to Ukraine and it has caused many issues, including being unable to stop a major Ukrainian offensive. Vladimir Putin cited the extremely long front lines, which he said were over 620 miles long. The move has proven unpopular with rare protests against Putin breaking out and over 1200 arrests. It is unclear who exactly will be sent to the front lines, but Russia has said it will only be people with relevant combat experience. Putin also said that Russia would use any weapon they had to protect the country and wasn't bluffing. 

My Comment:

This move was long overdue from a Russian perspective. Despite their battlefield successes, Russia never had all that many troops in Ukraine, with Ukrainian forces always outnumbered them. Russia has only ever deployed 200,000 troops, which is not a lot. 

Indeed, it was a lack of troops more than anything else that led to the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region. Russia had very little forces in the area, mostly volunteers from the breakaway republics and a few companies of Russian regulars. Ukraine was able to push Russia back from the region largely because the Russians were outnumbered. They took massive casualties to do so and the offensive has stalled out, but if Russia had done this before the offensive they would have not had to withdraw. 

A huge number of fresh troops being poured into the front lines could massively change the current situation. For one there wouldn't be any problem with not being able to defend the front lines. The Russians could actually go on a major offensive again as well, as troop numbers have been the major problem. 

It should be a gamechanger for Russia. Ukraine will not be able to match this huge number of troops. And given the massive casualties and equipment losses Ukraine has taken it's possible they will collapse once these troops enter the country. 

The downside for this is that this will be very unpopular in Russia. These reservists are draftees unlike the troops currently in Russia. Those troops were mostly, perhaps all, volunteers. Sending in the draftees will be something different. Unlike the volunteers, those troops did not have a choice to sign up. 

Western media is reporting widespread unrest over this decision. As always with Western reports on Russia I am skeptical about their claims. I do think there is unrest over this, but I am guessing Western media is exaggerating them. Though I do believe that Russia is cracking down on whatever protests are happening, they are after all, not that much better than Ukraine. 

Could it be a turning point for Russian support of the war? It's possible. Russians have mostly been supportive of the war and have been convinced, with good reason, that it's a necessary war for their survival, an argument I would largely agree with. But most Russians, outside of people in border areas or the family of soldiers killed, have been insulated from the costs of the war. All they really have lost to this point was access to Western luxury goods.

But sending in the reserves is going to make the war a lot more real for many Russian, with the draftees being the most obvious losers in this. Russia had the same problem in Afghanistan and it also mirrors the situation the United States had during the Vietnam War. Once these reservists start coming back in body bags or wounded it will be clear that the Russian people will be paying for the war. 

As for the war itself, I still think that Russia is winning. The media says otherwise but the Kharkiv offensive was mostly irrelevant, given how few troops Russia lost there and how many Ukrainian forces were expended there as well as in the completely failed Kherson offensive. Plus, it's very clear that Russia has won the Economic war so at this point I think all they need to do is outlast the West. Given arms stockpiles are now mostly depleted and people are probably not going to have fuel to heat their homes in Europe this year... 

I know some people are worried that an actual war between Russia and the West could happen now. I personally think that isn't going to happen, though it would be an appropriate thing to happen to Joe Biden. This is mostly his fault after all. But I don't think a full scale nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States is likely. Unfortunately, it is possible, largely because the unpredictable nature of Biden and his foreign policy. After all, this is a guy that keeps making statements that end up getting walked back by his own underlings. Still, I remain hopeful that cooler heads will prevail.