A drought in the US plains is threatening the winter wheat crop, adding to fears of global food insecurity. Reuters. Many farms in Kansas, which is America's top wheat producing state, have not seen any meaningful rain since October. The drought conditions are also found in Oklahoma and Texas, which are also major wheat producers. The crop was also damaged by a major winter storm that had 100 mph winds and stripped away crop soil. The conditions are not much better than in 2021, where droughts harmed crops. But last year there wasn't the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war and the fact that China is facing the opposite problem with their winter wheat crop, damage due to flooding.
My Comment:
I have written about the problems caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and I have also written about the problems China is having as well. To find out that America is having our own problems with failing wheat crops is not reassuring. One of these crisis's alone would be enough to raise food prices but all three at once could be a major issue. We should all hope that these great plains states get the rain they desperately need so the winter crop gets saved.
A quick note on what winter wheat is. It's just normal wheat that is planted in the late fall-early winter and lies dormant until spring. It is ready to harvest during June or July, depending on where you are in the world. This problem is far off but it is already causing higher prices as people buy up crops in anticipation of higher prices down the road. The good news is that we could see good harvests for spring wheat, planted in March to May, but those crops won't be ready until fall.
As I mentioned in the previous posts food inflation and shortages is the quickest and most dramatic way to cause revolutions, civil wars and general unrest. When you can't feed your family you start to realize that change is necessary and worth the costs. I am certain that if things get worse there will likely be instability on countries that rely on imports to feed their people. I mentioned Egypt in previous posts but really it's much of Africa and there are other countries outside of Africa that will be affected by this as well.
Food prices are likely to explode in the near future, and that's even in comparison to what it is now. Wheat is a staple grain used in many foods and if the price for it goes up a lot of things get more expensive. And it will have ripple effects beyond just the price of wheat as people turn to other grains to make up for it.
And the situation is likely to get even worse. The economic warfare between Russia and the west is likely going to lead to shortages for fertilizer, resulting in even lower crop yields. And that's hardly the only agricultural related thing that both Russia and Ukraine export. If the war ended today and sanctions were eased we might be able to avert this but I just don't see that happening outside of some kind of miracle peace deal.
With that being said, I still say that Americans won't go hungry. We are still a wealthy country and we are North America's breadbasket. Nobody here is going to starve anytime soon. The problem is that it will add to our already huge economic problems and contribute highly to inflation. Since inflation is already out of control, everyone in this country should be hoping for rain in our plains states.
In other countries though, this problem could be huge. It's very possible that in the various war zones or in countries with little native food production, people could starve because of a lack of grain. If that happens it will lead to war and suffering. Nothing good comes from this unless a particularly loathsome government is overthrown.
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