As you are probably aware, today is day 17 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has been very difficult to find accurate information about the war. Ukraine has been putting out non-stop propaganda while Russia has taken the opposite path, largely releasing no information at all. This makes it very difficult to determine what exactly is happening. Even the maps that I have been using to track the conflict are hard to trust given the massive difference between pro-Ukraine maps, like the one above, and pro-Russian maps, which are pretty hard to even find.
Another timelapse for you, this time from the Readovka maps. pic.twitter.com/UxvG9HtBeU
— Charles Mayne (@CharlesMayne2) March 11, 2022
With such a massive difference between both sides, it's hard to figure out what is real and what isn't. But I think it is clear that Russia's invasion hasn't gone exactly to plan. From what I understand, they thought the war was going to be basically over by March 11th, but that obviously isn't the case, even using the optimistic pro-Russia maps.
Why have things slowed down? There are a ton of reasons, some obvious, some not. The most obvious is the fact that they invaded Ukraine during "mud season", late winter/early spring. This had made Russia largely incapable of pulling away from the major highways because every time they do they get bogged down in the mud. This was the main reason I thought for sure that Putin wasn't actually going to invade, the timing was terrible. Much better to invade Ukraine during the early Summer, when the ground is dry and hard.
Another major problem for the Russians is the fact that they don't have much left in terms of precision weapons. This has had a major impact on both the targets they are attacking and how they are doing it. They are having to ration the few smart bombs they have left for critical targets, like the foreign volunteer training base they hit yesterday. Without smart bombs, Russian forces are dependent on low flying jets for air support, which has lead to heavy casualties due to Ukrainian anti-air weapons.
The Russians have had absolutely huge problems with logistics. Some of that is due to the aforementioned winter issues, but much of it is because Russia kind of sucks at logistics, especially compared to the United States. They are having a terrible time with getting fuel, food and weapons to the front where they are needed. This is Russia's biggest problem and probably the reason why the advance has slowed.
Though much has been made about US and EU provided anti-tank weapons, I don't think that they are quite as important as people have made them out to be. They aren't going to win the war for Ukrainians, obviously, despite media claims to the contrary. With that being said, the weapons are causing a lot of attrition for Russian armor units, much more than they expected.
Ukrainian resistance has been more than expected. I think the Russians expected the Ukrainians to lay down their weapons and perhaps even join the Russians. That hasn't happened, and it shouldn't be too surprising. Though the civil war in Ukraine had bled the Ukrainian military dry, it did mean those that survived are hardened veterans.
With all that being said, I still believe that the Russians will end up winning in the end. They still massively outnumber the Ukrainians and are more able to sustain the level of casualties that they have taken. The Ukrainians are not so lucky. It's important to note that both the Ukrainian Navy and Air Force have been totally destroyed and they have sustained heavy vehicle losses. They still have a ton of infantry and anti-tank and anti-air weaponry, but that's their only advantage.
And I think it's clear that the Russians have switched tactics. Instead of a lightening fast blitzkrieg they have settled into siege warfare. The Russians now appear to be trying to cut off and isolate Ukraine's major cities. They are then going to deploy their heavy weapons and artillery to utterly destroy those cities, like they did with Grozny back in the day. This will, of course lead to heavy casualties for all involved.
NATO and other western governments seem to know all of this and are setting the stage for a guerilla campaign. Will that happen? I am not sure. I think the Ukrainians hate the Russians enough now to do so, and they have access to weapons, but I am not sure they will do so. And I am not sure that the Russians will actually stick around long enough to have that take an effect. Time will tell if that is the outcome.
What are the other outcomes of this war besides an insurgency? I don't think a quick Russian victory (by the end of the month) or a total Ukrainian victory are possible at this point. An eventual total Russian victory seems the most likely military solution. The Russians could also win a pyrrhic victory where they accomplish all of their goals but are bled dry in the process. Or they could win in the end but take a very long time to do it.
But the most likely outcome? I think it's a peace deal. Both the Russians and Ukrainians should both realize that continuing the war is going to do nothing for both of them but cause a ton of casualties and horror. I have seen what Russia is demanding and I don't think it's too bad, just give up Donbass, Crimea and give up on NATO, Ukraine would be foolish to ignore that. Whatever honor they wanted to save has already been satisfied, they should just give negotiation a chance.
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