Russia appears to be switching strategies in Ukraine, abandoning a drive to the Capitol, Kiev, and focusing more on the Donbas region. AP. Russian officials claimed that they had finished the first stage of the war and said that they were now focusing on liberating the Donbas region, which is home to Russia's allied breakaway Republics. Russia's offensive near the capitol had largely stalled out compared to other fronts. It is unclear if that was due to Ukrainian resistance, logistical problems or due to some larger strategy. Ukrainian forces have made some progress in taking back some of the area around Kiev.
My Comment:
This seems to be the Russians just admitting what has been going on for quite some time now. Compared to the other offensives the Russians launched, the one targeting the capitol has stalled out. I think it has a lot to do with logistical problems more than anything else. Unlike the other fronts, the supply line that serviced the Kiev front were ran through Belarus, not Russia itself. That appears to have caused numerous problems and largely halted the Russian offensive.
However, it's important to note that the Russians have done well in other theaters of war. Right now the main push seems to be in Mariupol, a major city between the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Their offensive there has been more successful and it seems clear that the city will eventually be captured. Keep in mind that Ukraine's best units were deployed in Mariupol and those units are in the process of being completely destroyed.
I think it is also possible, even probable, that the entire Kiev front was a feint. Russia always seemed to want to secure Donbas and destroy Ukraine's best military units, which were stationed in the area during the beginning of the war. The major attack near Kiev may have been to draw attention away from this area, thus making the capture of the area easier and eroding defenses.
I guess it all depends on what you think Vladimir Putin's war goal was. Did he want to take over the entire country? Did he just want Donbass and the Kiev attack was a feint? Or did he simply want to destroy as many Ukrainian military units as possible? I don't really know and it sure doesn't seem like anyone else does either.
Another question is if Russia is actually winning the war? Without knowing the war goal that's a hard question to ask. I do think Western media coverage is totally biased against the Russians and even if the Russians were clearly winning the war they would claim otherwise. I personally think that the casualty figures cited by the AP are fanciful at best and ten times what the Russians have admitted. Not that I trust Russia's numbers, mind you, but I am guessing that the numbers are somewhere in between Russian and Western estimates. And the western sources are also downplaying how much ground has been gained in the eastern and southern fronts.
With that being said, I also don't think the war went as well as the Russians thought it would, or even I thought it would in the early days in the war. Like I have been saying from the start, Russians are not that good at logistics and it appears to have cost them greatly in the northern front. They just have not been able to move weapons and supplies to the front as fast as they should have been able too.
The Russians have also not been using their weapons all that effectively. If they wanted to they could have leveled Kiev. The city is in artillery range and they also have heavy bombers that they could have used. They have chosen not to for some reason, the Russians claim to reduce civilian casualties, which makes little sense given they are using the same tactics in Mariupol with some success.
I also think that the Russians made some fairly obvious mistakes, the most obvious being when they chose to launch their attack. I was totally convinced that there was not going to be war because I couldn't imagine Russia deciding to invade in late winter/early spring. That's mud season and it has bogged down much of their offensive, limiting actions to the roads and generally making things miserable.
It also seems that the Russians spread their forces too thin. If the goal was never to take over the entire country, than the feint at Kiev was a major mistake. They committed major forces to that theater that might have been more useful elsewhere. If they had ignored the entire northern front and focused on cutting off the units in the Donbass region the war might be over by now...
Speaking of the war being over, it seems clear that we are a long way from that. From what I understand there are peace negotiations going on but the sticking points are the territorial concessions that Russia wants. Zelenskyy does not appear to want to give up his claims on Donbas and Crimea even though it's clear that he will never get them back. I think he knows that but doesn't feel comfortable in granting that concession to Putin, even though it's essentially status quo ante. Why? I am sure that if he did his life would be in danger, not only from hardliners in his own government, but from the US government as well.
It's clear what our government's goal is in Ukraine, even if it's not clear what the Russians goal is. Biden wants the war to get as bad as possible and wants as many dead Russians as possible and if that means every Ukrainian has to die he doesn't care. Indeed, he's willing to risk World War III to get the Russians involved into another Afghanistan style conflict. There has been zero diplomatic push from the United States to end the war despite how many casualties are being inflicted on both sides.
Still, I do think that an Afghanistan style conflict is unlikely as both sides in the conflict appear to be wanting out. Zelenskyy will probably give in on the territorial demands and I think if the Russian's goal was ever to take over the entire country they have given up on that. I think an negotiated settlement where Russia gets much of what it wanted but not a total victory is likely to be the actual end game of this war.
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