Joe Biden says that Americans should not be worried about nuclear war. Yahoo News. A reporter for CBS asked Biden the question at a Black History Month event and Biden responded with a curt "no". Vladimir Putin increased the alert level of his nuclear forces to their highest level in response to Western sanctions against him due to the war in Ukraine. Other US officials have downplaying Putin's warning saying that war with Russia is not in the cards. The United States has also said that they have not raised their nuclear alert status.
My Comment:
Though I agree that nuclear war is unlikely, these statements by the US government is making me nervous. Biden tends to get major issues like this wrong and I don't trust him at all. If he says not to worry about something, that means I worry about it. These folks don't have any credibility.
I do think that nuclear war is unlikely. Despite the shrillness from the Western Media I haven't seen anything to prove that Vladimir Putin is acting in an irrational matter. He had valid reasons to invade Ukraine and his actions since then have mostly made sense, though I don't understand why he increased the alert level. My guess is that it's just deterrence.
Is there a scenario where nuclear war happens? Sure. If a skirmish broke out between Russian troops and NATO forces it could spiral into a war. If the war goes so poorly that Russia's borders are actually threatened they could use nukes to stop any advance. And if there was some kind of internal revolution where Putin's life is threatened he might just decide if he's going to die anyways...
But none of those things seem likely. Russia's fire discipline has been fairly good and the war is actually going pretty well for them. And I can't see any internal revolution happening, as Putin remains popular even if the war doesn't appear to be, though given how Russia has been cut off from social media, who knows?
I actually think that there is a bigger chance of the United States or our allies launching an attack. Not because I think it is likely, just because I don't trust Joe Biden to make good decisions as he has not made a one during his presidency. Though he has ruled out a no-fly zone so far, I can see him doing something like that which would lead to a larger war and a possible nuclear exchange. Poland offering to let Ukraine use their air bases could do the same thing.
I don't really feel comfortable making predictions on this as I did get the actual war breaking out wrong. I was about at sure that war between Russia and Ukraine would never happen as I am now that a nuclear war would not happen. Given that I was wrong about the first thing, I could very well be wrong again.
With all that being said, I do think that the actual threat of a nuclear war is not as bad as people make it out to be. I, and pretty much everyone I know, would likely die but countries that were not nuked would probably be ok. There would be many survivors in the United States as most of the nukes would be targeting military facilities. And for most countries in the Southern Hemisphere would be mostly not be directly affected. It would probably be the end of western civilization but humanity would survive.
So how close is this situation to nuclear war compared to other crisis's, like the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Able Archer 83 crisis? Not even close as far as I am concerned. In both of those cases the principle conflict was between the Soviet Union and the United States directly, in this case it's Russia vs Ukraine, with no direct conflict between Russia and the United States.
Again, I don't think nuclear war is likely. Biden saying one isn't coming is disconcerting to say the least but honestly, I can't see it happening. Everyone has way too much to lose right now and given the fact that Putin appears to be winning the war I can't see him doing anything so stupid. I could, of course, be wrong, but we should all hope that I am right...
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