Russia has sent major forces into Ukraine proper, sparking a major military conflict. BBC. Vladimir Putin announced the strikes saying he was not going to occupy Ukraine and demanded Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms. Ukraine responded by cutting of ties to Russia, issuing martial law and distributing weapons to civilians. Putin claimed the war was justified due to anti-Russian actions the Ukrainian government undertook, likening the country's anti-Russian language law to genocide. The war in Ukraine is nothing new, and neither is Russian involvement but the open invasion of Russian forces indicates a new phase in the war.
My Comment:
I have to admit that I got this story wrong. I figured that Putin was not going to invade Ukraine proper, even after he entered the Donbass region. The fact that it is still winter in Ukraine made me think that he would be reluctant to launch any attacks in this weather, but I guess that wasn't a great concern. I also didn't think Putin had too much to gain from attacking Ukraine but given the rather tepid response from the international community, I don't think he had anything to lose now either.
As for the war itself, it's too early to tell who is winning, though it does not look good for the Ukrainian military. The fog of war is in full effect so it's extremely difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff, so I won't post any rumors I have seen here. I will say that my gut tells me that Russia is utterly curbstomping Ukraine in this phase of the war.
They have a much bigger and better military than Ukraine does. Ukraine's Navy is a joke and may have already been completely destroyed and their air units aren't much better. Plus, keep in mind that Ukraine's military was absolutely bleed white during the early phase of the civil war. I don't think the few shipments of western weapons they have gotten will do much other than possibly prolonging the conflict.
My guess is that Russia will likely win the conventional phase of this conflict. They have the weapons, experience and troops to destroy major Ukrainian military units. The real question is what happens after that? Russia says they don't want to say in Ukraine but that might not hold through during this conflict. If they do stay outside of the Donbass region, and other Ukrainian areas that are Russian speaker dominated they could face a rather brutal and well funded guerilla campaign. My hope is that Russia will pull out whenever they feel they have done enough damage to Ukraine's regime.
As for fears of a wider war, I am not convinced. I do think that Belarus will join the war, since it's de facto involved in the first place, but other than that I don't see much happening. I do have some mild fears that Joe Biden could Alzehimer's us into World War III but that seems very unlikely even for him. I don't think anyone in America wants yet another war that we probably won't win for another country that couldn't solve it's own problems. The war will be a headache enough for Biden without the direct involvement with US troops.
The international response to this has been, as expected, pretty lame. Nobody is threatening war against Russia, and for good reason. The fact is that nobody wants to risk a nuclear war with Russia over a country that is useless, strategically and economically. Even the supposed removal from the SWIFT banking system doesn't look like it will happen. I am sure there will be some meaningless sanctions, that will likely hurt US and European civilians far more than it will hurt Russia, but I am not expecting much else.
As for the morality of this war, I do consider it a war of aggression. Russia had options here and could have humiliated the United States and Europe merely by sending troops to Donbass and then stopping at the border. They didn't choose that path and I don't agree with the decision. I do think that Putin had rational reasons to launch this war, but I don't agree with the fact that a lot of people will die needlessly because of his ambition.
But I also don't agree with this being a black and white conflict morally. None of the players here, the least of all the United States, are morally clean. America has no ground to stand on when it comes to invading countries, considering we invaded Iraq and Libya on much shakier grounds. I do think that Russia's charges of genocide against Ukraine were more real than any western outlet would ever admit, after all the anti-Russian laws are public record. And let's not forget that the west fostered the revolution that started this whole mess in the first place. I do think that Russia deserves much of the blame but I am rather disgusted that the media is trying to say nobody else does either.
I think the real problem though was a total lack of leadership from both US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Biden, of course, is an extremely weak president. His approval ratings have dropped to pathetic levels and he sent a clear message to the world with his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that America was now a paper tiger.
Biden's biggest failure was diplomatically. Unlike President Trump who had a working relationship with Vladimir Putin (even when he was bombing Russian troops in Syria), Biden has had nothing but contempt for Putin. He never even offered the most basic concessions to Putin and he tried to impose his will on Russia. Since Russia considers itself at least an equal to the United States, it did not work out for him. Knowing Biden was weak, Putin decided he would do whatever he whatever he wanted in Ukraine.
As for Zelenskyy, his major failure was diplomacy as well. He was elected on a tide of discontent that the war in Donbass had not ended. He had a mandate to solve the crisis but utterly failed to do so. There was an easy solution, repeal anti-Russian laws and offer the two breakaway republics a federal solution, but he was unwilling or unable to
I probably won't have a follow up to this post tonight unless something unbelievable happens, but do expect more coverage for this conflict as time goes on. With that being said, I started this blog to cover news that isn't getting enough attention, and this seems like the mother of all distractions! Watch for news to get buried today and if I find any myself I will try and get a post up.
There are no surprises here. Putin got away with it once, of course he would do it again. With 150,000 troops at the border, there's no way he would turn back. The expenses of keeping an army in place for a fake invasion meant he had to attack. Financial sanctions don't mean much when Russia has Europe by the petroleum products balls. The lame response from Biden, moving 3,000 troops to Poland, was laughable. That or they are super soldiers taking on a Russian force of 150,000. Once European countries and NATO have 150,000 troops deployed, only then should the U.S. put boots on the ground.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your comment!
Delete