As you are aware, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. The war continues and there is a lot to talk about. I'm going to avoid specifics due to the nature of this warfare so I am going to stick to more general observations. Apologies in advance for the listicle format.
1. The war seems to be going fairly well for the Russians. As you can see from the map above the Russians have made quite a bit of progress, especially in the south. A lot of people in the media are saying that Russia is losing because they have yet to capture Kiev or any of the other major cities. To that I say it's only day four of the invasion, of course they haven't. The fact that they are even threatening Kiev is a pretty big accomplishment, regardless what you think of the war.
That doesn't mean that the war has been won. They could possibly lose fairly easily. I don't think that Ukraine has any ability to push the Russians out but they can make the juice not worth the squeeze. This war is extremely costly in terms of lives, money and material and the Russian government may decide that it's not worth it. And given the peace overtures we have seen today, we might see a diplomatic end to the war.
It's also important to note that it's extremely difficult to discover what is actually happening in Ukraine. Most information is propaganda and it's very hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. I'm basing my belief on Russia winning largely on where Russian units have been spotted, not on what the media is saying.
2. Pro-Ukraine propaganda is completely out of control to the point that some of it is just sad. We have seen video game footage passed as real, footage from the 2014 conflict passed as recent and some obvious and over the top lies. I personally don't believe any of it, largely because it's pretty easy to debunk. That doesn't mean that all the footage from Ukraine is fake, far from it, but there is a narrative being built here and it has little to do with reality.
And the tone of the propaganda? It's so shrill that I'm starting to want the Russians to win. It's like all the people that liked canceling people over mean tweets and shaming people over mask wearing moved on to the next virtue signaling campaign, but this time they have the support of the CIA and State Department. Trust me, you aren't a good person just because you support Ukraine, indeed, it shows you don't really understand the issue.
3. Pro-Russia propaganda appears to be non-existent. This is surprising to me as Russia is fairly good at propaganda so you would expect a lot of viral videos. But there has been next to nothing from the Russian side. Why? I am not sure but I am guessing they are trying to keep their troops disciplined and keep from having any bad publicity. If that's the case I think it's a mistake since the coverage of the war is about as biased against them as it could possibly be. The other choice is that they are paranoid about their troops movements being discovered.
I do think it's important to note that the Russians have banned their people from all western social media. That alone explains why we haven't seen as much propaganda for their side. Again, this seems like an own goal on this part because much of warfare is about perceptions and right now the perception is that Russia is both losing and evil and they aren't doing anything to counter that.
4. I have mixed feeling about Ukraine giving out fully automatic rifles to civilians. As a pro-gun person I think every government should do this at all times, so I am supportive in principle. But in practice I think this will backfire on Ukraine. If they are giving these guns to completely untrained civilians it will end in death. An untrained person going into combat is probably more of a threat to himself than he is to his enemies. And even if they aren't, what exactly is a civilian with a rifle going to do against a Russian armored column? If they actually spent time to train these folks they could actually be useful but just giving them a rifle and throwing them into battle? It's not a good idea.
The other problem I can see with this is that it will make the Russians more likely to kill and injure civilians. If enough civilians take up arms then the Russians will start to shoot civilians on sight. Right now they seem to be trying to keep civilian casualties low, but that will stop if every old man has an AKM.
5. This is not a black and white conflict, no matter what the media says. Russia isn't Satan and Ukraine isn't Jesus Christ. That isn't to say that Russia are the good guys, they are not. They started a war of choice and gave up on diplomacy, so at the very least they deserve much of the blame. Plus, I am guessing that at least some of the accusations of atrocities are true. Plus, their crackdown on peaceful anti-war protesters is shameful. Russia does not deserve to be supported in this campaign.
With that being said, I do think that Russia's actions make sense. Ukraine joining NATO and the US deploying nuclear weapons there would essentially signal a first strike against Russia and a conventional war is more logical than waiting for that to happen. Putin may be a bad person for launching this war, as diplomacy could have worked, but he's also a rational actor responding to incentives.
As for Ukraine, I have little sympathy for the government, and especially Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy was elected on a wave of discontent with the fact that the war was continuing. He was supposed to end the war but instead he escalated it to the point that the Russians invaded. Making him out to be a hero isn't the right thing to do. Plus, the obvious fact of the matter is that the Ukrainian government is ridiculously corrupt.
I also have to say that though the Ukrainian regular troops are acting reasonably, the pro-Ukraine militias are not. They are accused of atrocities and many of them are actual Nazis. That's not Russian propaganda, it's a well documented fact, look at the page for the Azov Battalion. Though it's fairly silly to call the Ukrainian government Nazis like Russia has done (since Zelenskyy is a Jew himself), it is clear that the accusation at least has truth to it.
In short, I don't think there are any good guys in this conflict, expect on the level of individuals. There are good Russian and Ukrainian fighters on both sides but I don't think anyone in the leadership of either country is a good person. And the western governments that helped start this war? Well, they are the worst of all, especially if the rumors that Joe Biden essentially started the war by relaunching the Ukraine joining NATO drive are true.
6. I don't think this situation spirals out to a larger war. I'm almost afraid to say that since I got the prediction about the war happening wrong, but I just don't see it. Ukraine isn't worth going to war over and Biden isn't acting like anything is going to happen. From what I understand he went back to Delaware this weekend and I would hope like hell that he wouldn't be doing that if he thought a wider war was likely.
7. The economy is going to suffer from this war. Much of the short term damage is due to people panicking but I think more damage will be done long term due to economic sanctions and Russia's response to it. Given that the American economy is in a freefall already it's not a good thing.
8. The real victims of the war are the civilians and soldiers on both sides, with exceptions for the various militia groups. Very few civilians wanted this war and they are the ones going to be suffering for it. And though the Russians aren't going to suffer as much as the Ukrainians, but sanctions will hurt them as well. And keep in mind that the majority of soldiers on both sides are conscripts that didn't choose to join the military, let alone start a war.
9. The longer the war goes on the worse this will be. That's why I want a quick victory for Russia or a diplomatic solution over anything else. The people that want a Ukrainian victory seem to be ignorant of the way that would happen, through a grinding attrition campaign that will kill tens of thousands of people. Ending the war as soon as possible is the best thing that could happen.
10. The US response to the war has been a joke. Biden appears to be out to lunch, spending the weekend in Delaware... again. Our media is just running propaganda 24/7 this point with no objective reporting whatsoever. And our politicians are just sniping at each other.
What really gets me is that there is no discussion at all if dealing with Ukraine is even worth it. I personally think we should just stay out of it. Risking a war with Russia just as a middle finger to Putin is not something I support. There is an argument to be made but nobody is actually making the argument, there is just an assumption that we should support Ukraine. They are acting like the argument has been won when it actually has never been made. What do we gain from supporting Ukraine? What do we risk by angering Russia? What damage would sanctions do to our economy? Can you answer these questions? And can our leaders? I don't think so...
No comments:
Post a Comment