True number of Coronavirus cases in America could be 10 times as high as reported.

Medical workers testing for the Coronavirus in New York. Politico/Getty.

The true number of Coronavirus cases in America could be 10 times as high as reported new antibody tests show. Politico. With 3.8 million confirmed cases in the United States that would mean that 38 million people would have the disease. The findings are based on a study that looked at 16,000 people in 10 states in March and May. The study may show that many people may have had the disease and either not shown any symptoms or only had mild symptoms and didn't seek treatment. The antibody tests are 96% accurate but the tests may have been biased by the fact that people who participated in the study may have been seeking healthcare. 

My Comment:

I have said for awhile now that I believe that the Coronavirus is a lot more widespread then the case count would indicate. With so many people being exposed to the virus and not showing symptoms my guess is a large number of them are infected. Ten times as many seems like a probable rate as far as I am concerned. 

This is actually really good news if it turns out to be true. I don't think we are anywhere near getting a vaccine for the virus so the only way out is by herd immunity. This is even better if the majority of people either have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Though we still have a long way to go until we get to herd immunity it means that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

 And I'm not convinced that we need to get to 90% infected for us to stop the virus, especially considering that people are taking steps to protect themselves from the virus. Indeed, I think the most likely people to catch the disease have already mostly had it. That means that many of the people that could be exposed to the virus have already done so, so we will make herd immunity a lot sooner than we would otherwise. 

I, of course, wonder if I myself have been infected. Given how big the outbreak was at work I'm pretty sure I got exposed. I did have a mild illness in March so it's possible that I was infected but when I was tested in May I came back negative. But that was a test for active disease, not an antibody test so it wouldn't have picked it up if I had already had it and recovered. 

I have considered getting an antibody test myself but I worry about it. For one thing I don't trust my work to understand the difference between old antibodies and current infections. I could lose up to two weeks of work and though it would be nice to have another vacation, I don't really want to do it since we are understaffed at work. 

The other problem is that if I do test positive my case will be counted as a new case for my state. That could be used to justify further economic damage through lockdowns that probably wouldn't do a thing to actually slow the disease. 

Obviously if the case number is actually 10 times higher than it has been reported that means the death rate is much lower then it is actually reported as. This means we should probably take a different track in fighting the virus. Instead of these lockdowns we should instead protect vulnerable populations and quarantine the sick. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be in the cards as there are political reasons for the lockdowns as well...