Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt might be drawn into conflict over Ethiopia's dam on the Nile River.

The dam under construction in 2019. BBC/Getty. 

Sudan and Egypt are objecting to Ethiopia's dam on the Blue Nile River, which is filling with water ahead of schedule. BBC. Sudan and Egypt are largely dependent on the Nile River for their water supplies and fear that Ethiopia will cut them off. Ethiopia views the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam as a major economic opportunity and want to use it to become Africa's biggest energy exporter. However, if Ethiopia does fill the ban and cut off Egypt and Sudan's water supplies it could lead to war. Ethiopia claims that the filling reservoir is not due to their actions but due to heavy rains. 

My Comment:

This seems like one of those situations where I don't think an agreement is possible. Egypt and Sudan have a major interest in the status quo while Ethiopia has a major interest in change. And there doesn't seem to be much in the way of middle ground option to work out here. Either the dam gets used or it doesn't, with little room in between. 

It also seems pretty unreasonable to expect either side to give up their claims. Sudan and Egypt need water to survive. Most of their water comes from the Blue Nile to the point where if it were to dry up it would be a disaster. They would either have to import water or have to invest in desalination. Both of those things would be extremely expensive.

But Ethiopia has reasons as well. The money this dam will generate will be huge for them. They can export it to other African countries and it's basically like printing money. They will be less dependent on foreign energy and they may even open up more land for farming with the new reservoir. 

With these circumstances it's very possible that a war will erupt. Though both sides are still trying diplomacy, it seems unlikely that anything will work. Even the United States has had a rough time trying to figure out a solution that will be beneficial to both sides.

So what would a war look like? I am guessing it would be airstrikes from Egypt. Ethiopia does have an air force but it's made up of outdated planes like the SU-27 Flanker and the MIG-23 Flogger. Egypt on the other hand has a huge modern air force with F-16's and MIG-29's. My guess is that they would be able, with Sudan's limited assistance, clear the skies over Ethiopia fairly easily and then blow up the dam. They would be protected from any Ethiopian retaliation by Sudan's military and could easily deploy their own troops to the border to help defend Sudan. 

The main problem is that Egypt is already in over it's head. They are already deeply involved in the conflicts in Yemen and Libya and have one of the last remaining ISIS insurgencies in the world. A fight with Ethiopia is one they could win but it would further weaken them at a time they can't afford it. 

Either way, I consider this to be one of the more likely places a war could break out this decade. It's no sure thing but it's certainly a possibility. A war is in nobodies best interest but I also don't know if it's possible for Egypt and Sudan to live without water and Ethiopia to live without the massive inflow of cash the dam will provide.