Possible coup attempt ongoing in Venezuela.

A solider throws a tear gas canister in Venezuela. Reuters. 

Venezuela's opposition leader and interim president Juan Guaido has announced the final phase of his plan to oust President Nicholas Maduro and called on the military to join him in what appears to be a coup attempt. Reuters. Guaido made this announcement on Twitter with around 70 soldiers. A Reuters reporter saw the incident and reported that the demonstration was broken up with tear gas. The Maduro government rejected the incident and said they were still firmly in control of the country and that the group had failed at taking over the airbase where the incident occured. The Maduro government ordered troops to stay in their barracks and called for supporters to march at the Presidential Palace in Caracas. Many countries, including the United States recognize Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela 

En el marco de nuestra constitución. Y por el cese definitivo de la usurpación. https://t.co/3RD2bnQhxt

— Juan Guaidó (@jguaido) April 30, 2019

My Comment:
This is a breaking news story so anything I post will likely be out of date very soon. As of this writing I don't know what happened to Juan Guaido and he hasn't posted on Twitter for three hours. Things could rapidly change and I probably won't be able to keep up with them.

That being said, I don't know if this attempt will be successful. The Maduro regime has mostly been propped up by the military and they have little reason to support Guaido. He was able to gather a few members of the military to support him, but the 70 men he had isn't anywhere near enough to counter the rest of the military. If the Reuters report is true and the gathering was broken up by mere tear gas then things probably won't go well for the coup.

I do find it surreal that Guaido was able to do this and not get shot. I mean he was with armed men and was calling for the removal of the Maduro regime. I know that Maduro doesn't want to antagonize the United States, but I don't see how he can let this stand.

What it is going to come down to is if Guaido ends up convincing enough of the military to actually fight. He doesn't need all of them, just enough to actually pose a threat. 70 guys isn't anywhere near enough but if he were to get even a quarter he could start fighting and have a chance of overthrowing the regime. Right now, it doesn't seem like he has enough.

This reminds me of the failed coup in Turkey but even more haphazard than that. In that coup the military had quite a few forces ready and actually engaged in combat. That coup still failed but it looks like it will come closer than this one to succeeding. With only a few soldiers openly supporting Guaido, I don't see how he wins.

However, there are a few wild cards. Guaido has the support of many countries including the United States and major regional power Brazil. They could help him if he manages to get some of the military on his side. If not though, I don't see how they can save him at this point.

Time will tell what happens. Right now this is all speculation, but I am guessing that the coup probably fails unless something major happens. And if it does, I bet that Guaido will be arrested and removed from power. Either way though, Venezuela will remain a basket-case...