Mexico's murder rate has risen dramatically in the first three months of 2019

Police and civilians at the scene of a crime. BBC/Reuters.

Mexico's murder rate has risen by 9.6% for the first three months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. BBC. 8493 people have been killed in 2019 so far, which contradicts new Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (ALMO) who claims that the murder rate hasn't increased under his leadership. 2018 was already the worst year for homicides, most of which were fueled by the drug war between the cartels. ALMO has said he will create a force to secure the country but it's unclear if the plan will work. 

My Comment:

Looks like ALMO's reforms haven't really been working out. The violence isn't going down but it is getting much worse. The homicide rate is a pretty good proxy for the Mexican Drug War as most of the murders are due to the drug trade at least in part. With so many people dying it's pretty rich that ALMO is saying that the war is slowing down. 

It does seem that most of the deaths are due to fighting between the cartels and not between the cartels and the government. ALMO has lessened the pressure on the cartels and hasn't been targeting them as much as the last president. 

Without a common enemy to fight, the cartels are trying very hard to eliminate each other. But the cartels are strong enough that they are mostly killing their low level people and not the leadership which keeps the cartels together. 

Of course the civilians are caught up in the middle of the fighting. Given Mexico's insanely harsh gun laws, they can't get firearms to defend themselves against the cartels. Loosening those gun laws would probably increase the violence as vigilantes and civilians fight against the cartels but it would at least give them a chance to defend themselves. 

I don't think ALMO's plans will work. There are probably two long term solutions for the Mexican Drug War. The first would be a military solution. Wipe out all the cartels with extreme military options. Such a solution would be a human rights nightmare and would make the death rate even higher, but it would work eventually.

The second option is to wipe out all the cartels but one and give them a monopoly. Doing so again would require military action and human rights violations, along with allying with one of the cartels, which would be morally reprehensible. Giving one of the cartels a monopoly would reduce much of the violence. 

As usual, the Mexican Drug war is largely ignored in western media. Even the GOP doesn't play up the fact that there is a huge national security risk south of our border. In my mind the violence in Mexico right now more than justifies the Wall. But at the very least you would think that this massive war that causes so many problems in America would get some media coverage, but outside of the random article like this one it goes mostly ignored.