Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi warns that the next Democratic president could declare a national emergency on guns.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. 

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has warned that the next Democratic president could declare a national emergency on guns in response to President Trump's declaration of a border emergency. The Hill. Pelosi claimed that gun violence is an emergency and that the next Democratic president could agree with her. Pelosi said she didn't advocate a president doing so, but did admit that it was possible. President Trump declared a national emergency on immigration in response to congress failing to fully fund the border wall with Mexico and reports of multiple illegal immigrant caravans. 

My Comment:

This seems like an obvious scare tactic from Nancy Pelosi. Generally speaking, I think immigration is an issue that the Democrats have lost on and they also know there is very little they can do to stop President Trump from building the wall now. She's trying to divide Trump and his pro-gun supporters in a rather obvious way. 

That being said, it is a good reason for gun rights supporters to not want a Democratic president in 2020 or beyond. Nobody wants a president who will declare a national emergency against gun rights. Such a thing is possible as declaring national emergencies are legal and relatively common. Before Trump declared this one on the wall, there were also 31 other emergencies, so it's not like these things are uncommon or anything.

What that national emergency would entail is a mystery. The nightmare scenario where some kind of gun confiscation scheme comes into effect would be extremely unlikely. Democrats know that would be national suicide, both for their party and for the country itself. Assuming that the country didn't immediately devolve into civil war or a coup d'etat, the now conservative Supreme Court (which may be 6-3 by the time Trump is out of office) will likely stop any attempt to confiscate guns via the executive branch via emergency. Even with the more peaceful solution, it would likely cause an immense backlash and it would be a miracle if the country didn't devolve into chaos if they even tried it. 

More likely is that a national emergency will secure funds for something. My guess is that it would be used bring back biased research into gun violence. Such research was stopped by the GOP due to it being incredibly biased and bad science, but an executive order could start it up again. 

I don't buy Pelosi's argument that there is an emergency with gun violence. The majority of gun deaths in America are suicides with self defense and police shootings being another decent faction. Actual gun violence deaths are fairly rare and have been dropping for years now. And mass shootings, though headline grabbing, are extremely rare. It's way different then thousands of people massing to illegally enter the country. 

Of course to declare an emergency, a Democratic president needs to be elected. I think that is pretty unlikely for 2020 but it's obviously possible for 2024. And there are varying levels of support for gun control in the Democratic Party. There are a few candidates for president that I don't see doing an emergency declaration like this. 

Still though, this is mostly just posturing from Nancy Pelosi. She knows she got played by Trump and understands that even the courts won't likely be on her sides now. Unlike her party, Trump has SCOTUS and a growing advantage in the lower courts. She knows she has lost and she is just throwing a tantrum. I expect very little to come of this.