Nicolas Maduro says that the US government is fabricating a crisis against him in Venezuela

Nicolas Maduro talks with ABC News reporter Tom Llamas. ABC News.

Nicolas Maduro says that the United States government is fabricating a crisis in Venezuela in an attempt to take the countries oil. ABC News. Maduro's government has prevented food aid from entering the country and may close the borders with Brazil and Columbia Maduro has control of Venezuela but an opposition leader, Juan Guaido has been recognized internationally as interim president. Maduro said that President Trump was in charge of a "Klu Klux Klan" government but at the same time said that Trump was following Barack Obama's path and that he would extend a hand of dialogue. 

My Comment:

I'm not too impressed with Maduro's statements to ABC News. He seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. You can't try to open up a diplomatic solution while at the same time calling Trump a Klansman. He's not going to win any friends doing that. 

And Maduro is wrong. The pressure on the Venezuela government isn't due to oil, it's due to the fact that his socialist government has largely destroyed his country. Oil isn't even an issue anymore since his government isn't able to produce anymore due to the fact that he spent his oil revenue on social programs instead of reinvesting into oil or even diversifying his economy. By failing to do so his country has completely run out of money and his people are now starving. 

Despite the crisis in Venezuela I don't see a war happening. Nobody wants a war and unless Maduro does something very stupid, like launch a war on his own terms. I have long said that Maduro might invade Guyana as a way out of his economic crisis. There is a long standing border dispute with Guyana and they small country has nowhere near the military that Venuzela has. If Maduro does make that choice he will be attacked by Columbia, Brazil and the United States. But that's about the only way I see war breaking out. 

What is critical right now is Venezuela's military. Right now they are supporting Maduro over Guaido, but that could change in the future. Sooner or later they will probably realize that they will have a better life if they back Guaido. Aid and economic opportunities will flood the country once Maduro is gone and the government stops being socialist. 

Until the military changes it's mind though, I think it's going to be status quo ante. President Trump doesn't want a war even if he does enjoy saber rattling. I haven't seen much polling about Venezuela but I can't imagine that there is much American support for war. 

War would likely be a disaster, mostly due to the refugee crisis it would create, or more accurately, make worse. Millions of Venezuelans have already fled the country due to the economic crisis and the abuses of the Maduro regime. It's not an outcome that anyone will want.   

On the other hand, I have to mention that the situation reminds me of the initial relation between President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. For awhile it looked like we might go to war with him as well. Now he and Trump are meeting in Vietnam and a peace deal looks likely. Something similar could be happening here. I don't think that Maduro has a chance of staying in power but it's possible that Trump could broker a deal where he at least gets to stay in Venezuela and leave power peacefully.