Pakistan shoots down two Indian MIG-21's, captures one pilot.

Pakistani soldiers stand near the wreckage of a crashed MIG-21. AP/AFP/Getty.

Pakistan claims to have shot down two Indian MIG-21's and have captured at least one pilot. AP. The escalation comes after extremely high tensions and major shelling on the ground. India has confirmed that they lost one of their MIG-21's and that a pilot has been captured. An Indian helicopter crashed as well but it is unknown if that was related to the engagement, other combat or if it just crashed on it's own. Air traffic in the region has been rerouted and canceled entirely in Pakistan. Both sides have put out statements that they would like to avoid war but so far no deals have been made. 

My Comment:

Most of what I said yesterday morning about this issue still holds. We are still pretty far away from an open war between India and Pakistan. That's all still true. But it's closer today than it was yesterday. This is a major escalation, especially since Pakistan has at least one of the pilots was captured. This goes beyond artillery duels and airstrikes now. 

This is a breaking news story and because of that the situation is very confused. There are images floating around that shows a dead body but I can't confirm if it's one of the pilots or not. I also can't verify the video that I saw that claimed to be the captured Indian pilot. There have also been reports that a Pakistani F-16 was shot down, but that hasn't been widely reported and is likely fake news. With the situation rapidly developing and two massively populous countries spreading rumors like wildfire. It's very unclear what is happening right now for sure, other than at least one MIG got shot down and one pilot got captured. Everything else seems to be up in the air. 

Either way though, this is a major change in the trajectory of the conflict and it could be a turning point. It's very possible that India will feel the need to react to this and that reaction could cause a counter reaction and eventually that could lead to war. And a war could possibly lead to a nuclear exchange. That's not a likely scenario but it is one we have to start thinking about. 

What is needed are cooler heads and diplomatic efforts to calm things down. These efforts have already begun but who knows if they will work out. Indeed, Pakistani Prime Minster Imran Khan sounded more like a threat to me. I'll post it below. 

"I ask India: with the weapons you have and the weapons we have [emphasis added], can we really afford a miscalculation? Let's sit and settle this with talks."

I don't know if reminding India that they could get nuked if they miscalculate is a good think It seems like a major gamble that could either pay off or backfire horribly. On the one hand it could knock some sense into them and force them to the negotiating table, which would be the best outcome for everyone. On the other, it might make them think that the Pakistanis are planning a first strike. From what I understand Pakistan is one of only two countries in the world that both have nuclear weapons and have not vowed to strike first, with the other being Israel. Reminding people of that might force India's hand. 

I do think this crisis is very poorly timed. The United States and much of the world's diplomatic power is focused on North Korea right now. As President Trump helps make sure that one of the world's tinderboxes won't go up anytime soon, he is hampered in dealing with India and Pakistan. I don't know how much he could do since we aren't allies with either country, but it's still bad timing. 

Speaking of President Trump, the American media is downplaying this story despite how obviously dire the situation could get. Right now all they care about is a disgraced, disbarred and proven liar testifying before congress. Though I hope that war doesn't happen I will be grimly satisfied if it does and the media is caught flat footed. They refuse to cover stories by how important they are and this story is probably the most important one in the world right now, right up their with the North Korea summit. 

I will continue to monitor this situation and if something major happens I will probably blog about it. But for now I will probably just cover the story on Twitter if there aren't any earth shaking developments.