Turkey announces offensive against US backed Kurds in Syria.

Turkish troops. BBC/Getty.

Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan says that Turkey will launch a new offensive against US backed Kurds in Syria. BBC. The attack would happen somewhere to the east of the Euphrates, which is where the United States has 2000 troops stationed. Turkey considers the Kurdish YPG group to be a terrorist organization and the US support of the YPG in the fight against ISIS has strained relations between both countries. Until now Turkish troops have not targeted YPG troops and positions east of the Euphrates river, but have cleared out many Kurdish troops from the west of the river. 

My Comment:

Troubling news out of Syria. Turkey hates the Kurds so this isn't very surprising. They feel that the Kurds controlling a large swath of territory in Syria is an existential threat to the Turkish identity of the country. They believe that the Kurds are bad people for not getting rid of their beliefs and practices and they are treated as 2nd class citizens in Turkey. 

Turkey's hate of the Kurds is so extreme they are willing to anger their most important ally, the United States. Both Turkey and the US are in NATO and are supposedly on the same side but they have very different goals. Turkey wants to ensure that the Kurds don't get a homeland and also want to weaken the government of Syria. The United States wants to defeat ISIS using the Kurds as a proxy army so they don't have to risk their own troops. 

The relationship between Turkey and America is probably at risk here. Any offensive operation against the Kurds east of the Euphrates could result in US casualties. Such an incident would be a huge deal and might end with Turkey being kicked out of NATO. Sure, Turkey can try and avoid any such incidents but doing so isn't exactly easy in the middle of a war. 

And Turkey is taking a huge risk in assuming that the Americans won't back the Kurds over them. On the one hand the Kurds are pretty expendable as they are mostly being used to fight ISIS. If they weren't fighting ISIS, we would have little interest in them. On the other, they have been the best ally we have had outside of the Iraqi government against ISIS. Betraying them to the Turks would mean that nobody else would have a reason to trust the United States again. 

The other downside is that it will delay the total defeat of ISIS. They are still hanging on in the eastern part of Syria and are currently involved in dangerous battle with the Kurds. The fighting has been brutal and slow going but assuming no interference ISIS will probably lose their last holdout in Syria. 

Of course if Turkey does end up attacking the Kurds, the offensive against ISIS will likely end. There are non-Kurdish rebels under the command of the United States, but they aren't as numerous and well trained as the Kurds. The battle against ISIS would either devolve into a stalemate or even reverse some of the gains made against them.  

This is not in the best interest of the United States and just goes to show how bad of an ally Turkey has been in the Syria conflict. Before the 2015 bombing of a peace rally in Turkey, they were de facto allies of ISIS, supplying them arms and money in return for oil sales and attacking the Syrian regime. It is not a surprise that Turkey is now interfering with our efforts to fight ISIS.