Mass shooting in Strasbourg, France, kills four people with the suspected attacker still on the run.

The aftermath of the attack. Reuters/Twitter user @MARIOSAAVEDRA.

A mass shooting at a Christmas market in Strasbourg, France, has killed four people and the suspected attacker is still on the run. Reuters. The gunman was a robbery suspect who was known to police and was on the terror watchlist. French police had raided his home earlier today, but the suspect was not there at the time. French police reportedly had a shootout with the suspect some two hours after the attack but as of this writing they have not captured him. 11 people were also wounded in the attack, several critically. France has been on high alert for terror attacks with Christmas markets having extra security after several incidents last year in Europe. 

The Associated Press has live updates for this attack. 

EDIT: The death count has been revised down to three deaths. 

My  Comment:

I'm not going to comment much on the manhunt for the suspect in this case because what I write will likely be out of date by the time anyone reads this. However, it is extremely uncommon for an attacker in a mass shooting/terror attack like this to escape for this long. From what it sounds like, the suspect managed to escape from the scene of the crime before being confronted by the police two hours later. He was then wounded but appears to have escaped a 2nd time. 

If that is really how things played out it is fairly unprecedented. Most of the time these kinds of attackers are in custody right away as they are either shot and killed on the scene, captured by police, or kill themselves. Very few even try to run and those that do almost always fail. My guess is that the attacker is out of ammunition, but he could still be a threat and I hope French police capture him soon.

This attack was probably unplanned, or at the very least pushed up. I say that because it has been reported that the attacker's home had been raided earlier today. He was being investigated for a robbery and the police had tried to arrest him but he wasn't home. My guess is that somehow he knew that the police were coming so he decided to move his attack up and chose a target of convince. Attacking a Christmas market was probably a very obvious target as it is a large gathering of people. 

Despite increased security at the Christmas markets in response to other terror attacks like this, it seems French police failed to protect shoppers in this case. There didn't appear to be any resistance from them at the scene of the attack and they were only able to confront this guy long after the attack. Had there been an armed response at the scene of the attack, perhaps fewer people would have been shot. However, reports on this attack are confused at best and I haven't been able to get a clear reckoning on what happened. It's possible that they did respond, but it's unclear from media reports. Even so, the fact that the suspect was able to run away is not exactly the outcome you would expect during an attack like this.  

The AP report also noted that it took 45 minutes for an ambulance to arrive to help one of the victims of the attack. That is horrible and I wonder if the poor response to this attack has something to do with the civil unrest France is having right now. The Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Jackets protests are ongoing and have been a large drain on French resources. With police overworked  and ambulance drivers joining the protests, it's possible that they just weren't capable of responding to this attack normally. That's a bad sign for France.

Thankfully, this attacker didn't attack during one of those protests. Such an attack would be utter chaos and would remind Americans of the mass shooting targeting cops at a Black Lives Matter rally in Dallas, Texas back in 2016. With tensions so high in France there would have been huge consequences for both police and protesters if there had been a terror attack during one of these rallies/protests. 

It seems very clear that this attack was related to terrorism. It's unclear if it had any connection to any larger terror networks though. The suspect, who hasn't been officially named, though a name is out there right now, was on the terror watchlist, so that implies some kind of connection to terror groups. That, and the fact that the target was a Christmas market, implies at the very least that this attacker was inspired by terrorist groups, presumably ISIS or al-Qaeda. Time will tell if he was a member and if he was getting support. 

One piece of evidence that this attacker did have some terror links is the fact that he was able to get a gun. I haven't seen any reports on what kind of firearm was used, but guns are hard to come by in France due to strict gun control laws. They aren't that hard to obtain but you generally have to have links to the criminal underground or terror networks to get one. My guess is that he used an AK derivative as that has been the weapon of choice for terror attacks in France. He also had grenades in his apartment so that tells me he had some pretty good connections. France isn't Sweden where anyone can get a hand grenade, so he must have had some help. There is a real danger of this being a larger terror cell. 

Finally, I do have to say it has been some time since we have had a major terror attack in Europe. They used to be almost daily but the destruction of ISIS has helped immensely. Now it is mostly lone wolves or known wolves, not major plots. Indeed, this one has every indication of being a spur of the moment attack instead of a planned assault. That is a positive development, even if today's events are tragic. 

I do have to say that France is having a tough time of it lately. They have had some of the most horrible terror attacks in Europe and their economy isn't doing well. There is widespread discontent and major protests every weekend. The last thing they needed right now was another terror attack...