Elizabeth Warren's senate photo.
On a slow New Year's Eve news day Senator Elizabeth Warren has announced that she is forming an exploratory committee for a 2020 presidential run. Though it isn't official yet it is all but an admission that she is running in 2020.
Do I think she has a chance, a nomination or presidency? Probably not. Warren strikes me as the same kind of candidate as Hillary Clinton. Obviously, she is an older woman running on a leftist platform. She's not that different than Clinton in terms of policy and to me she even looks a bit like her. Clinton famously lost against President Trump, so I don't know why the Democrats wouldn't want to try and mix it up for 2020.
To be fair to Warren, compared to Clinton she is a lot smarter and less scandal ridden than Hillary Clinton. She is also more likable and less hated. That's almost damning by faint praise but I know if it was a choice between the two women I would be voting for Warren every time. Of course there are very few people on earth who I wouldn't vote for over Hillary Clinton, including serial killers and mentally ill people, so again, damning by faint praise.
Warren's biggest problem is the major scandal she had where she claimed that she was part Native American. President Trump famously mocked her for this, giving her the immortal nickname Pocahontas. Furious at the nickname, Warren released a DNA test that said she had some DNA, but no more than the average white American.
This backfired on her horribly to the point where people are still making fun of it to this day. Instead of vindicating her it just confirmed her critics right when they said she was lying when she got into college based on a lie. It made her look massively hypocritical to support things like affirmative action for minorities but being a white person taking advantage of that for her own gain.
Which makes me wonder how the minority portions of the Democratic coalition will react to Warren. Those minorities aren't likely to vote for Donald Trump, Blexit talk regardless, but they might not turn out for a woman that lied about her ethnicity for personal gain.
I also have to wonder what part of the Democratic coalition Warren appeals to. The "woke" members want someone who is anyone besides a white person. The neoliberals can go with someone like Joe Biden or, god forbid, Hillary Clinton. And the economic populists could go for Bernie Sanders. Warren does have some minor appeal to all of them so she might be a compromise candidate but nobody gets excited for that. She's kind of the Democratic equivalent of Jeb Bush in 2016, a candidate that doesn't really appeal to anyone.
Plus I don't think that Warren will be able to run on her ideas anyways. If the 2016 election was all about Donald Trump, I can't imagine that if Warren is the candidate that will change. One of Warren's major weaknesses is that if she does run she won't be able to ignore Trump's insults and trash talk. She will play right into his hands and have more unforced errors like the Pocahontas fiasco.
Overall I don't think that Elizabeth Warren has a realistic chance of winning. Though she isn't the worst candidate the Democrats could run but she is uniquely a poor matchup against President Trump. She doesn't have widespread appeal and is too similar to Hillary Clinton to be a realistic winner.
Of course, given the Democratic primary system there is little chance of Warren winning anyways. It's going to be up to the DNC who runs and if Warren isn't the one that they choose she is doomed. And if they do I think they will be making a major unforced error as, like Hillary Clinton, the various factions of the Democratic Party aren't going to be happy with being forced with another boring white woman candidate.
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