Syria accused of again using chemical weapons.

Smoke rises in Douma, Syria after an airstrike. ABC News.

Syria has been accused of using chemical weapons again in their battle against rebels in the Damascus suburb of Douma. ABC News. 40 people have been reported dead in a chemical strike by the controversial White Helmets group. The alleged attack comes a year and a day after Donald Trump ordered a limited missile strike on a Syria airfield after Syria's use of chemical weapons before. Syria, and their Russian allies, deny the accusations. Russia offered to send experts to the area as well.

Many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 8, 2018

My Comment:
Distrubing news out of Syria and news that is not welcome. The use of chemical weapons in Syria is never a good thing and in this case it seems extremely senseless.

Why? Because Syria is winning the war now, and has been for quite some time. We are in the clean up phase of the war. Douma is one of the last areas controlled by the Syrian rebels near the Damascus region. Indeed, it's one of the few remaining places left under rebel control in Syria period. It is completely cut off and under siege. There is essentially no way that the rebels could escape and they will have to surrender, sooner or later. It's not like a major column of rebels is going to appear out of nowhere and relieve these fighters.

This strike is thus completely pointless because more conventional weapons and/or starvation would do the same thing. The only advantages you might get out of a chemical weapons strike is it's effectiveness as a terror weapon and a very small chance of ending the battle sooner. That seems to not be worth the international outrage and the possibility of retaliation.

And it looks like retaliation may be coming. Trump is already tweeting that there might be a "big price" for the Assad regime to pay and since he has already launched strikes in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack, I would not be surprised if that happens again.

That being said, I fully expect the strike to be similar to the last one where only an airfield was destroyed. Trump has spent the last couple of weeks telling everyone who will listen that he doesn't want to keep troops in Syria much longer and I doubt one chemical weapons attack is going to be enough to change that thought process. He's always been wary of regime change and doesn't want to risk a confrontation with Russia. If anything happens militarily it will be a small, limited strike with a decent warning for the Russians to get their people out in time.

I also wonder if Turkey's actions in Syria may be what provoked this. Syria has said that they want to fight against the Turks invasion of Kurdish areas, but they haven't done much so far. Capturing Douma would free up a lot of forces to attack the Turks and their proxies in Northern Syria. That obviously doesn't excuse the attack, but it might be part of the descion making process. If so that is yet another thing that Turkey has done to make this horrible civil war even worse than it already was...

There aren't a lot of details about this attack and many of the reports are conflicting. Other sources had the death toll as high as 140 and there is no information as to what chemical Assad supposedly used. My guess is that this was probably another chlorine strike as those are easy and cheap to pull off. The Syrians are probably running low on their more powerful chemical weapons and I am guessing they have to rely on their more improvised ones.

I do have to say that there is a tiny chance that this is a "false flag". I know that is the angle that Russia is pushing but is it true? Probably not. Indeed, the only thing about this that gives me any credence to the conspiracy theory at all is the fact that the White Helmets are the ones that reported it and because it was a rather boneheaded move by a government that is winning the war. I don't trust the White Helmets at all since I have seen them being deceptive for propaganda purposes before. That being said, I certainly don't trust the Syrian regime and the Russian media either. In the end, whether the event happened or not doesn't matter as much as any reaction too it.

I am hoping that a bit more evidence is collected before any action is taken and even if there is proof that Assad did this, I don't really want anything to come of it. I have long said that brutal tactics in war can be justified if it means ending the war. As far as I am concerned the question if the Assad regime is going to survive is no longer in question and all a retaliatory strike will do is extend the war further, likely leading to many, many more deaths that could be avoided. On a utilitarian level whatever ends the war quickly is probably the best outcome, even if that means a lot of civilians will die.

Of course, with that being said, I won't shed a tear if we manage to blow up the base this chemical weapons attack came from. I may not want the war to go on further but chemical weapons are pretty terrible and should be discouraged from use. As long as any strike is as limited as the last one I won't be too upset if Syria has to pay a price for this attack. We will find out soon if they will...