Paul Ryan is going to retire as Speaker of the House.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Official photo.

Paul Ryan has announced that he is going to retire as Speaker of the House and not run for reelection. The Hill. Ryan said he will continue to serve until his term ends in January. The move was widely expected but was not supposed to happen until after the 2018 midterms. With Ryan on his way out the race for Speaker of the House has begun with Majority Leader Kevin McCarty (R-California) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) being seen as obvious front runners. Ryan had a major victory with the GOP tax cuts but never got along with President Trump and is very unpopular with the populist wing of the Republican Party. 

My Comment:

This isn't a huge shock for me. Ryan has always struck me as the exact kind of person Trump was elected to oppose. His only major accomplishment was the tax cut and other than that he has been a thorn in the side for the populist side or even conservative sides of the party. It was time for him to go. Some will argue that it's been time for him to go for a long time now, even though he hasn't been speaker for that long. 

Ryan's biggest problem is that he was a centrist through and through. He wasn't pushing for the immigration reform and gun rights legislation the GOP base wanted and let many bills that would have been popular languish. Yes, he did pass tax reform but many other Republican priorities were left to rot on the vine. If the GOP does lose control of the house, Ryan is going to get a lot of the blame for not getting much passed. 

Most damning was his very public and very embarrassing feuds with both candidate and President Trump. I won't ever forgive him for telling GOP candidates to distance themselves from Trump when doing the exact opposite could have turned our narrow win against Hillary Clinton into a landslide. It was very clear after Trump's victory that Ryan didn't fit in with the GOP anymore and wasn't leadership material, let alone the most important person in Congress and 2nd in line for President of the United States should the unthinkable happen. 

Ryan was so unpopular that he had a credible primary threat in Paul Nehlen who was supported by many people outside of Ryan's district. He still won easily but he was due to face yet another primary challenge from both Nehlen and Nick Polce, and it is possible that he would have lost against one of them. 

Speaking of Paul Nehlen, the man has gone absolutely bonkers since losing that primary race. He went from a reasonable, if outspoken, member of the GOP to persona non grata very quickly due to his social media hijinks. Though I think the term "alt right" is mostly useless, Nehlen started living up to the stereotype by saying a bunch of racist stuff and even hung out with David Duke. And then he even pissed off the "alt right" by doxing Ricky Vaughn, an e-celeb that wasn't extreme enough for Nehlen. Nehlen has been banned from Twitter and isn't a serious candidate while his opponent, Nick Polce is a former Green Beret and seems like much more reasonable person to take Ryan's place. Two Democrats are also running for the seat but it's a fairly safe district for the GOP, assuming Nehlen isn't the candidate. 

Everyone in the media is trying to make this look like this is a bad thing for the GOP in the 2018 elections. I am not so sure. Ryan is not popular among the GOP base and there are going to be a lot of people happy that he is going to be gone. Plus, I don't really buy that people will be gun shy about giving to congressional candidates due to Ryan being gone. With the Democrats acting as crazy as they have been it looks like the GOP will be motivated. 

As for who should replace him as Speaker of the House, I am guessing that it will be Kevin McCarty. I'm not hugely familiar with the man but I am thinking that unless something extraordinary happens, he will be it, just based on hierarchy. I'd prefer Steve Scalise, but that's not a shot against McCarty. I just think Scalise is on the same wavelength that I am and he also has a great story after surviving the assassination attempt against members of congress during the Alexandria shooting. I am sure McCarty would be fine, I just like Scalise.