New missile strike targeting Syrian airbase.

Damage to the Shayrat airbase from the 2017 strikes. The Guardian/EPA.

EDIT: It turns out that this story is false. I regret the error but I am leaving this post up to remind myself how easy it is to get a story wrong. 

The Syrian government is claiming that they have shot down missiles targeting the Shayrat airbase near Homs. The Guardian. It is unknown who is responsible for this attack but the US government has said they have no forces in the area. There are also reports of a 2nd missile strike at a different airbase, this time at the Damascus area airport of Dumair. This strike has not been confirmed by Syria, but Hezbollah allies on the ground. The most likely suspect is Israel who has routinely attacked Syria but often denies these attacks, including the one last week.

My Comment:

Looks like Israel is stepping up it's attack on government targets in Syria. This is the 2nd major strike from them in a couple of weeks and a fairly important one. And one that could have severe consequence for everyone. 

Shayrat airbase has been used by the Russians in the past. It is unclear if they were there at the time but if they were than this was an extremely risky attack for the Israelis. Putting Russian troops on the ground at risk could result in retaliation from the Russians, which is, of course, a dangerous thing. 

I have very little doubt that this was Israel. America didn't do it as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis made it very clear that last weeks strikes were a one off and wouldn't occur again without a 2nd chemical weapons attack. None of the local governments are good suspects either as some of them don't have the capabilities and the rest don't have a good reason for it. Only Israel does. 

So why are the Israelis doing this? If there were to admit they were the ones responsible, which they won't, they would probably use the chemical weapons attack as the excuse for it. Officially, the Israelis were outraged by that attack and want it to prevent that from happening again. They will say that the US/British/French attacks did not do enough damage. 

Unofficially though? My guess is that the chemical weapons use was just the cover Israel is using to do what they actually want, which is to strike Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria. Both groups use these airbases as a staging area and the Iranians may even use these airbases as a drone base to attack Israel directly. 

Striking Hezbollah targets is self explanatory, they have been at war with Israel for as long as I remember. Israel will always target them and attack them when they can get away with it as they view them as a major threat. 

Attacking Iran seems to be a priority as well. It seems very likely that Israel and Iran will be at war soon so it makes sense to target them, even if it means pissing off the Syrians and Russians. Israel knows that Iran is largely in the war in Syria so they can build bases and supply lines to target Israel directly. This is why Iran has sent so many troops to Syria and is also using Hezbollah to prop up the Assad government. 

The whole Syria situation is a mess now. There are so many factions all jockeying for power and all with different goals. None of the factions, the US included, seem to be interested in actual peace.They all want their own special outcome most of which include the status quo continuing...