North Korea and South Korea are in talks to formally end the Korean War.

Soldiers at the DMZ stare each other down. CNBC/AFP.

A local news report says that North Korea and South Korea are in talks to formally end the Korean War, in a major diplomatic development. CNBC. The two Koreas are technically still at war as the war between them ended in an armistice, not a peace deal. The leaders of Korea, Kim Jong Un for the North, and Moon Jae-in of the South, are meeting next week and they are expected to make a joint statement that could outline the end of the conflict. They may also discuss a normalization of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that separates the two countries. If true, the deal would be a welcoming sign ahead of talks between the United States and North Korea regarding denuclearization. 

My Comment:

Though I just got burned by unconfirmed reports, this story is too important to be cautious about. Because if it is true it changes the world. The Korean War has technically continued since 1953 and has lasted far too long. A settlement to end that conflict would be a huge diplomatic victory and the first step towards a nuclear free Korean peninsula. 

It would also ratchet down tensions massively as well. North Korea would no longer be in a position that they could threaten the South and their American allies. South Korea would no longer have to maintain their huge army and defenses. And the US could consider scaling back their involvement there as well. 

All of that is a long way off. We still have much work to be done to ensure that peace is a possibility. The biggest sticking point is, of course, North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile program. North Korea must be willing to get rid of their nukes in order for any peace deal to have any teeth. Simply ending the war on paper is pointless if the North Koreans still have a sword at the South's throat. 

It looks as though that the North giving up their nukes is a real possibility. These diplomatic overtures are the most significant in my lifetime and it really seems like Kim Jong Un has seen the light. I think he understood that the sanctions and threats of military actions were only going to get worse so he decided to fold and get a better deal via peace. 

And a real peace/denuclearization deal really does work out best for everyone. The North Koreans get a lot out of it as well. Sanctions will likely be reduced or eliminated entirely. They would also have a lot more money that they can funnel from these programs back to the economy of North Korea and they would finally be able to trade internationally. Plus they would no longer have to worry about a US/South Korean invasion/regime change attempt. The deal would probably play well domestically as better conditions from sanctions relief, along with international respect that a deal would give, could help Kim's popularity.

South Korea obviously loses a huge security threat and would have a much lower chance of being involved in any wars anytime soon. They also would benefit from a more secure North Korean regime which, if it were to collapse, would cause a European style refugee crisis that could destroy their economy. 

Even China benifits. A North Korean collapse would be just as damaging for them as it would be for the South Koreans. And they would no longer have to worry about Kim going off half cocked and dragging China into a war. Relations with America would be better as well as this would be considered a major foreign policy concision which might lead to a better trade deal. 

And America wins as well. We obviously won't have as many nukes pointed at us, which is a great deal in any case. Plus we wouldn't have to worry about defending our South Korean (and Japanese) allies in any crazy war. We would also have quite a feather in our hat and will perhaps reverse the global reputation as warmongers. 

I really, really, really hope that this deal with North Korea happens and they give up their nukes. But there are a million and one things that could go wrong and derail the whole effort. Two things pop up at me right away. 

First, North Korea has a robust chemical and biological weapons program. Those two might have to go in order to get a peace deal passed. Though getting rid of nuclear weapons would be a start, it would make little difference if North Korea could load an ICBM filled with Anthrax or VX gas and launch it at California. North Korea might not want to give up this deterrence so it could be a sticking point.  

Second, North Korea has a horrible human rights record. Their treatment of civilians is among the worst ever recorded and everyone is going to have a problem if that continues in the future. Some of that will be mitigated by easing of sanctions, which would do much to improve the conditions of North Koreans, but it would still remain a country where people can be sent to a work camp for life just for saying something negative about Kim Jong Un. The treatment of North Korean civilians could destroy the whole peace deal.

Still, I am cautiously optimistic that peace might break out. If so, I sincerely think that the three major players in this drama, the leaders of North Korea, South Korea and America, should be strongly considered for the Nobel Peace prize. If Barack Obama can get one for simply existing, than those three men should get one for finally fixing one of the world's most dangerous tinderboxes, despite their flaws...