Fears of a major conflict in Syria are subsiding as diplomacy begins to work.

Syrian rebels board buses in their retreat from Douma. Washington Post/Reuters. 

Diplomacy seems to have broken out as fears of a wider conflict between Russia and the United States appear to be unfounded. Washington Post. US led strikes in Syria after their alleged chemical weapons strikes in Douma are still a possibility but both the Russians and Americans seem to be working hard in the background to avoid a conflict. Russia has backed down on claims that they would respond in kind to any attacks on the Syrians and are now focused on trying to avoid any Russian casualties. Both President Trump and President Macron of France have tamped down on the rhetoric as well, with Macron saying he doesn't want to destabilize the region. President Trump too backed down on his rhetoric saying that strikes will probably happen but that the timeline was up in the air. Diplomatic efforts have been happening in the background as Turkey is trying to broker a deal between the Russians and Americans. 

My Comment:

This comes as zero surprise to me. I was expecting cooler heads to prevail and it looks like they have. There will probably still be some strikes in Syria but the idea that this was going to lead to some kind of global war was never really that likely in the first place. 

Indeed, I always said that any strikes would be limited in nature and would be similar to the ones from last year where a single airstrip was bombed with minimal casualties and no real impact on the greater war. Any new strikes will probably be on the same scale, if they happen at all. 

The real sticking point was the lack of communication between Russia and America. Our communications have broken down due to the poisoning controversy in the UK and the extreme domestic pressure on Donald Trump to not make nice with the Russians. We haven't been able to ensure them that we won't be attacking their troops.

The diplomatic push that is happening right now is meant to discourage this fear. The Washington Post mentioned that Turkey is working as a back-channel between Russia and America but they aren't the only one. Israel, who also conducted strikes against Syria, is also being used. These back-channel communications are happening behind the scenes and aren't getting the attention they deserve. 

I think Donald Trump's rhetoric has been over-hyped as well. Almost immediately Trump had offered a Twitter olive branch to the Russians that obviously didn't get the coverage that his first tweet did. 

Our relationship with Russia is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War. There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy, something that would be very easy to do, and we need all nations to work together. Stop the arms race?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

Much of the bad blood with Russia is caused by the Fake & Corrupt Russia Investigation, headed up by the all Democrat loyalists, or people that worked for Obama. Mueller is most conflicted of all (except Rosenstein who signed FISA & Comey letter). No Collusion, so they go crazy!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

We have seen this tactic from Trump before. Despite all the complaints otherwise, Donald Trump is fairly predictable. He's doing the normal sales technique that he outlined in Art of the Deal where he makes an unreasonable, threatening demand but then immediately offers something more reasonable with the hope that the second offer is taken. '

So what is that offer? I am guessing that Trump is essentially telling Putin that he doesn't want war, obviously, but does want there to be a solution for the chemical weapons problem in Syria. He either wants Putin to crack down on Assad and ensure that they won't use any more chemical weapons or wants Russia to consent to a limited strike that won't target Russian interests in Syria. My guess is that the back-channels are being used to negotiate the details and an agreement in principle is already in place. 

All of this should have been obvious to everyone, including the media, from the start. Trump pretty clearly doesn't want a wider war in Syria and is against regime change. He is also against chemical weapons use and will do something, but that thing won't be something that involves regime change or going to war with Russia. Whatever happens in the next few days or weeks, it won't be a war with Russia. The people that are suggesting it will happen are being extremely reckless and immature.