North Korea claims to have shut down their nuclear test site, but the damage to the area is so severe it might be a risk.

Satellite photo showing the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Washington Post/Digital Globe/38 North.

North Korea claims to have shut down their nuclear test site but concerns have been raised that the site is a risk due to extensive damage. Washington Post. The move has been cheered as a step towards denuclearization but the danger of the site remains, even as it is shut down. Chinese scientists believe that the site has already collapsed and is no longer useful for testing. Even worse, cracks in the mountain may leak radioactive material. Satellite images have shown that the mountain has shifted after North Korea's last nuclear test in September. The information about the Punggye-ri test site comes before a major meeting between North and South Korea and a decrease in tensions between the two countries as well as between North Korea and the United States. 

Our friends at @AirbusDefence shared radar images of North Korea's nuclear test site showing post-test subsidence.https://t.co/DtWBQY2jUN pic.twitter.com/jII5NNJzKs

— Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) September 13, 2017

My Comment:
This report might be another reason why North Korea is willing to shut down their nuclear program. It seems pretty clear that the Punggye-Ri test site is done as a base and if the North Koreans were to continue to test warheads there it could cause a major environmental disaster. Indeed, they might have one on their hands already. 

How dangerous a release of radioactive material from this site would be is beyond my abilities to speculate. The fact that it was the Chinese who are saying that another test could lead to a disaster means that I am guessing the fallout would be severe, literally and figuratively. Given how impoverished and poor North Korea is anyways, there is no way that they can seriously attempt another nuclear test at this site. It's not worth the risk at all. They could lose a lot of lives and would endanger their neighbors who might be infuriated enough to go to war after their population gets a large dose of radiation as well.

Of course the North Koreans could pick a new site and attempt another test but that too would be a major undertaking. They would have to commit to a large building project and move their existing resources to the new site. That would cost a large amount of money. And money is a resource that North Korea doesn't have. Plus, the environmental concerns wouldn't go away as larger and more powerful bombs could lead to a collapse there as well.

They could, of course, try above ground or sea based testing but that would be a massive escalation and would likely result in a war. Plus there would be a lot of fallout to deal with and it would be very damaging to the environment. North Korea probably doesn't have too many areas they can afford to use for nuclear testing above ground either. They don't really have much in the way of remote wilderness or deserts to test in. And doing so would pretty much guarantee strikes on the regime.

I think this is important context onto why the North Koreans are suddenly willing to deal with the South and United States. In addition to the other factors, their nuclear weapons just aren't worth developing anymore. In order to continue to test weapons they either have to risk a collapse at their base or have to spend a massive amount of money moving the test site. Neither is a realistic option so they are trying to make a deal.

As for the meeting, I hope it goes well. North Korea has been taking a major risk with their nuclear weapons program and to have it dismantled is a good thing for everyone. Obviously the risk of nuclear war goes down for everyone but it looks like we are avoiding the possibility of a major environmental disaster as well. I think there is a decent chance that very soon North Korea's nuclear program will be nothing more than a bad memory...