Iraqi Prime Minster Haider al-Abadi. Rudaw.
The Iraqi government has indicated that they may launch cross border raids into Syria to fight ISIS holdouts. Rudaw. Prime Minster al-Abadi said that the country has switched focus from fighting terrorism in Iraq to fighting terrorism in the region. Al-Abadi said he would respect borders and sovereignty, but does want to defeat ISIS. Iraq declared Iraq ISIS free last December, but holdouts remain and several large raids have occurred.
My Comment:
I had to lose a local source for this story because international media isn't covering this story. You would think that yet another country throwing their military into the Syria quagmire would be a big story but these days the media has other priorities.
As for the idea Iraq crossing the border, it does make a lot of sense from their perspective. The chaos of Syria was a major reason why they lost most of their country during the ISIS invasion. ISIS used Eastern Syria as a springboard to invade Syria and the situation isn't that much different than it was when that happened.
Syria is still in chaos and although ISIS has largely been defeated there are still a lot of holdouts that could regroup. If that happens Syria could again be used as a staging area to invade Iraq. Iraq obviously doesn't want that to happen so this move makes a lot of sense for them.
The facts on the ground probably influenced this descion as well. As I have said repeatedly, Turkey's invasion of Kurdish areas of Syria has hugely effected the war. The Kurds were the main force fighting ISIS but after the Turkish invasion they withdrew much of the force that was fighting ISIS. The Syrian regime as well is not focused on ISIS as they are fighting the last rebels and are also concerned with the Turkish invasion.
Finally, it looks like the US military is likely to withdraw as well. Trump has withheld funds and has publicly said that he wants to pull out troops. Though that move might take awhile it could create a vacuum that ISIS could fill.
Instead, Iraq may fill that vacuum instead. Indeed, I wonder if this isn't a coordinated move by the Trump administration and Iraq. Trump has been fairly vocal about holding our allies to higher standards and making Iraq help out in Syria seems like something he would do. That being said, it's just speculation on my part.
Can Iraq actually do anything in Syria though? I think so. Their military is a lot more powerful than it once was and they are battle hardened and skilled now. They should have the ability to wipe out the last Iraqi holdouts in Syria. If this cross border operation happens it should be a success, though perhaps not a quick one.
What will the Syrians do? My guess is next to nothing. They might make some noise about sovereignty and respecting borders but the truth is that they have way bigger problems than some cross border raids. And having Iraq get rid of ISIS from them is a good thing as far as Syria is concerned. I think they won't object too much, but there is always potential for a mistake or misunderstanding...
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