Sunday, April 29, 2018

Syrian government is attempting to remove the last pocket of ISIS in the Damascus area.

The Damscus suburb of Douma. Reuters. 

The Syrian government is attempting to clear out the last pocket of ISIS in the Damascus area. Reuters. Heavy fighting has broken out with many gun battles and heavy artillery being fired. The Syrian government is advancing rapidly at one of the last areas in Syria under ISIS control. The enclave is the last outpost near Damascus and other than some parts of the Eastern desert and near the border with Israel and Jordan. The area in Damascus is the last under control of non-government forces as the former rebel enclave in Eastern Ghouta has been taken. 

My Comment:
Looks like the age of ISIS in Syria is rapidly coming to an end. There is very little territory left under ISIS control and what is left is under a large threat. The only safe area for ISIS seems to be the tri-border region with Jordan and Israel and those aren't even core ISIS fighters, just a group that pledged allegiance to them. 

There is little doubt that ISIS will lose this battle. I am guessing that Damascus is Syria's number one priority right now. They care little about what is happening in the North of the country compared to the threat letting ISIS hold on in Damascus. I am sure the Assad government really wants to be able to say that Damascus is totally under their control. 

And I think it's pretty clear that Assad does want Damascus under his control. After all, they did just launch a chemical strike there. Though that strike ended with a major retaliation from the United States, France and England, it did accomplish the goal of forcing the rebels to flee the area. The last rebels left on a convoy to Turkish controlled parts of northern Syria. 

Which makes me wonder if Syria might strike again with chemical weapons. The downside is obvious. There is a very good chance of yet another major retaliation attack and this one will likely be much large. On the other hand if it's ISIS getting gassed, will the demand for retribution really be that high? Probably. The rebels gassed in the last attack aren't much better than ISIS but the fact that civilians get caught up in these attacks is the major reason they get condemned. 

Plus, it seems very likely that Syria will win the battle with more conventional means. They have tanks, artillery and air support that ISIS won't be able to stand up against for very long. Honestly, I can't imagine that those fighters, cut off from the other surviving groups and low on arms and supplies, can last very long at all. Indeed, it seems as though Syria is making rapid progress already. Hopefully the battle will be over soon. 

What happens next? My guess is that Syria will shift their forces around again. But I doubt their new targets will be the small ISIS enclaves in the southwest and far east of the country. Instead I am guessing the major offensive will be targeting rebel areas held north of Homs. Taking out those rebel areas will essentially end the war leaving the small ISIS pockets for clean up. It would also help to counter Turkish and American moves in the region. 

Given that the last rebels left are mostly either affiliated with Turkey or with al-Nusra, I won't be too upset once Syria wins this battle. Shifting away from ISIS and towards ending the actual war is something that should have already happened. Once it does the war will almost be over... 

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