Did ISIS destroy a Russian airliner in Egypt? AFP.

Wreckage of the Airbus A321 which crashed in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. AFP.

ISIS is taking responsibility for the destruction of a Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt, but no official cause of the crash has yet been found. AFP. ISIS is very active in Egypt and their Sinai Province affiliate has taken credit for the attack. Egypt, Russia and the United States have downplayed these claims but have not ruled out the possibility of terrorism. The aircraft broke up in the air. Given the fact that the plane appears to have disintegrated at 30,000 feet, well outside of the range of most anti-air missiles, the most likely possibilities are either a mechanical failure or a bomb on board. Though ISIS is active in the Sinai peninsula, they are not thought to have the support base to pull off such an attack. 

My Comment:

I held off on commenting on this incident since it happened because it was very clear that nobody knew what has happened. I think that's still true to an extent but I am thinking there might be some smoke to this fire. ISIS certainly has the desire to attack both Russia and Egypt and if this was an attack then they accomplished their goal. I don't know if I buy the objection that ISIS doesn't have the capability to build and deploy a bomb. It's not that hard to blow up an airplane and whatever the Egyptian equivalent to the TSA is, they only need to screw up once. It's a circumstantial case, yes, but it's getting to be a stronger one. It's very possible that this was a terrorist attack, most likely a bomb strike. 

The one thing I don't think is that it was some kind of missile attack. Though I wouldn't be surprised if ISIS has control of shoulder launched MANPADS, those only work on low flying aircraft. The plane, by all accounts, was flying at 30,000 feet, well outside the range of any MANPADS. You would need a much more sophisticated anti-air system, like the Buk missiles that took down Flight 17 in Ukraine. There is no evidence that ISIS in Egypt, or anywhere for that matter, has control of such a weapons system. I guess it is possible that they captured something from the local Egyptians, but if that had happened it would have been a huge story. And there would have been an international response. My guess is that there is practically no chance of it being a missile strike. 

I think the most likely explanation for this crash is still mechanical failure. The A321 Airbus in question was an older aircraft, and I have heard that may have had mechanical issues in the past. It's no question that sometimes planes just fall out of the sky due to technical or mechanical failures. There is a good chance that this is what happened. Though this is the most likely cause, it's still too soon to declare that is what happened.

We also have to remember that ISIS has a history of taking credit for things they had nothing to do with. ISIS has taken credit for many terrorist attacks, some of which were conducted by other groups. Though it is unlikely, that could be the case here, if it even was a terrorist attack. AQAP, al-Qaeda's group in Yemen certainly has the capabilities to pull off this kind of attack and have much more experience with traditional terrorism then ISIS does. And even if it isn't a terrorist attack, ISIS gains from claiming responsibility. Even if it is proven that it was just a mechanical failure, people will still believe that ISIS was the one that did it (along with all kinds of other conspiracy theories). 

However, if ISIS is found to be responsible, what will Russia do? My guess is that there will be a response and it will be a tough one. Russia has always cracked down hard on terrorism and the murder of 224 people, most of them Russian, will draw some kind of response. My guess is that Russia will double down on their attacks in Syria and may shift their air campaign away from the rebels and towards ISIS. It's even possible that they would be willing to work with the United States in a joint effort to destroy the terrorist groups. And I wouldn't be surprised if Russia and Egypt have closer military ties. Thought I doubt that Russia would strike the Sinai Province of ISIS directly, I do think that they may sell or give Egypt more weapons and equipment for counterinsurgency operations. 

Perhaps the least talked about aspect of this attack is the fact that it will hurt Egypt's tourism industry. Egypt's economy is largely dependent on tourism and this is yet another blow to it, even if it turns out that it isn't a terrorist attack. Egypt has had a very poor recent history of terrorist attacks and civilian deaths. A Croatian man was beheaded by ISIS, Egypt accidentally killed a bunch of tourists in the desert, and  has suffered several terrorist attacks lately. For a country that is dependent on tourism, that is really bad news. Nobody is going to want to go to a country where so many tourists have died.