French Carrier Charles de Gaulle has arrived in the Middle East and has begun airstrikes against ISIS. Reuters.

The Charles De Gaulle. US Navy photo.

The French Carrier Charles de Gaulle has arrived in the Middle East and has begun to hit ISIS targets in both Syria and Iraq. Reuters. The new strikes come on the heels of fresh meetings between French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minster David Cameron. Cameron is attempting to support the French in their airstrikes but has been unable so far to get approval from parliament. Cameron was able to offer air-to-air refueling services and the use of a British base in Cyprus. The arrival of the Charles de Gaulle has tripled France's strike capabilities. The arrival of the French flagship has already lead to many more strikes. In Iraq, jets hit targets in both Mosul, the regional command center for ISIS in Iraq, and Ramadi, where Iraqi troops are locked into a stalemate with ISIS fighters. In Syria, French jets once again hit targets in the de facto capital of Raqqa. French President Francois Hallende is on a diplomatic trip to try and convince allies to send more support.The list of world leaders he is meeting with includes German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian President Matteo Renzi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama. 

My Comment:

The Charles de Gaulle is a powerful ship and it should have a decent effect on the battlefield. It carries up to 40 planes, many of them strike jets that can hit ISIS fighters. Though it is not as capable as the US aircraft carriers, it is still a major ship that can do a lot of damage. The power of air strikes is often exaggerated, so don't expect this to be the miracle cure to the ISIS problem. I think the deployment of this ship will help the war against ISIS, but it is important to keep expectations in line with reality.

Still, ISIS is getting hit hard right now. The combined forces of the United States, Russia, and France are hitting them where it hurts. And I am hearing rumors of new offensives in both Iraq and Syria. The Iraqis are getting a ton of pressure from the United States to finally move on Ramadi, which was taken by ISIS earlier this year. The Kurds are also supposedly gearing up for an assault on the capital of ISIS in Syria. Raqqa, which has come under an incredible bombardment from the French and ISIS is the target of this new offensive, led by the Kurds and backed up by other Sunni Muslim groups. These combined attacks, combined with the massive air campaign is going to make it very hard for ISIS to go on the offensive. 

Even so, the war against ISIS is far from over. Taking away the city of Ramadi won't hurt ISIS all that much. They get little from keeping it, other then bleeding the Iraqis dry during a long battle. I fully expect them to abandon it after leaving some snipers, suicide bombers and booby traps behind. Much like they did in the Yazidi city of Sinjar, ISIS will make their enemies pay for taking territory from them. And all that assumes that the Iraqi Army is even capable of taking the city. They have proven time and time again that they aren't all that effective when it comes to battle. After all, they gave up the city with barely a fight. 

Taking away Raqqa would hurt ISIS a lot more. It is their capital and losing it would cause a huge hit to their prestige. Many of their leaders and troops are based out of the city and losing it would take away one of their most important bases. I don't think the Kurds are that close to taking the city though because ISIS defenses are very strong in the area. I have been hearing stories about how ISIS is building trenches and other fortifications to defend the city. The Kurds are good fighters but they don't have that much in the way of heavy weapons needed to break through these tough defenses. They also don't have nearly as much motivation to take the city of Raqqa as they do in defending their own territory. Raqqa isn't part of the Kurdish homeland and taking it will do little for them. After all, the Kurds aren't going to be allowed to keep the city even if they do take it. Sure, they are motivated, but are they so motivated to take a city that they can't use and won't be able to keep? My guess is no. Hopefully they prove me wrong.

On the political front I have already wrote about how France is being left out to dry in terms of help from its EU and US allies. I don't know if this diplomatic push will accomplish all that much for Hollande. The only person I see him convincing is David Cameron, and even then he may face resistance from the UK Parliament. Though he is offering non-combat support, I am not sure that he will be able to convince the UK that they should join the war against ISIS. Germany and Italy also seem like lost causes. Both of them are so swamped with the migrant crisis that their attention lies elsewhere. I think both of the countries are waking up to the fact that the migrant crisis is going to cost them billions of dollars and cause quite a bit of unrest. Though it would be nice for them to send a few token airstrikes just for the sake of solidarity, I don't see it happening.

Hollande won't get much help from the United States either. To be fair, we are sending in semi-frequent airstrikes in both Iraq and Syria and we are going to be helping the Kurds with there offensive against Raqqa, but Hollande wants more then that. He isn't likely to get it. Obama is bound and determined to not deploy significant forces to Syria or Iraq. He thinks his legacy is getting out of Iraq, he's not going back on that no matter what happens. And to be fair to him, military action, beyond what we are doing now, is deeply unpopular in the United States. That may change if there is another major attack, but that's probably the only way it is going to change. And even then Obama might not act. 

Another criticism of the United States response in Syria and Iraq is that we are far too concerned with civilian casualties. The official policy seems to be to call off strikes if there is even a chance of killing civilians. Russia does not have this problem. They are taking this war seriously and are launching heavy airstrikes with little regard to who gets caught in the crossfire. The Russians are extremely angry about the downing of their airliner in Egypt and they are unlikely to stop their attacks in Syria anytime soon. In Vladimir Putin, Francois Hollende has found a tough, uncompromising, though very unlikely, ally. I expect the diplomatic meeting between the two to be less of an attempt to convince Putin to help, but more of an attempt to formalize their alliance against ISIS.