Terrorist attack in Tunisia, 12 killed in bus bombing. Washington Post.

Tunisian police help a survivor of the attack. Washington Post/AFP

Tunisia has declared a state of emergency lasting one month after a bus bombing killed 12 people. Washington Post. On the bus were security officials in charge of protecting the President of Tunisia Beji Caid Essebi. The president was not at the location of the bombing. It is unclear if the attack was due an explosive planted on the bus or due to an explosive fired at the vehicle. A source said that it was likely that a suicide bomber that caused the blast. This is the third major terrorist attack in Tunisia this year, which has had many problems with Islamic insurgents. Earlier this year a terrorists attacked at the Bardo Museum in Tunis and a resort in the coastal town of Sousse. Tunisia is the only country to survive the Arab spring without major unrest, but even it has its problems with Islamic insurgents. Many Tunisians have joined ISIS or other terrorist groups and some of them have returned to Tunisia. It is unclear what group was responsible for this attack as no one has taken credit for it yet. ISIS claimed responsibility for the other two attacks this year, so they are a likely suspect, but that is yet to be proven. 

My Comment:

I am guessing that this story is going to get lost due to the utter chaos that is the media climate right now. The incident in Syria involving Turkey and Russia is drawing a lot of media attention. And in the US at least, the media is doing their best to blow every single police shooting out of proportion. Right now a major terrorist attack in Tunisia, a country that was once thought to be a stable example for the rest of the region. On the other hand, a bombing that has killed only 12 people hardly even rates anymore due to how terrible the terrorist attacks have been lately. Still, it's worth covering because of what the target was. 

I think the choice of target is a clear message to President Essebi. Killing his presidential guard will get his attention. The terrorists get to tell the President that not even his home guard is safe from attack. If the attack was due to a suicide bomber you have to wonder how the terrorist managed to get that close to a bus like that. Was he on the bus or outside of it? If he was outside of the bus it makes a little more sense, but if he was on the bus then that is a major breech in security. Either way, it shows how dangerous this terrorist group is. 

So who was responsible for this attack? Well nobody has taken credit so far, so it might be early to speculate. But my guess is ISIS. Why? Well they were responsible for the last two terrorist attacks in Tunisia. They are fairly active in the country and they have been very active in the world right now. After the attacks in Paris, Egypt and Lebanon, it would be easy to believe that ISIS is responsible. ISIS has also changed tactics recently and are much more active in international terrorism then they were last year. 

There are a few signs that this might not have been ISIS for once. For one, ISIS usually targets civilians, especially western ones. This attack was not targeted at anything but the Tunisian government. My guess is that if it isn't ISIS it's some other local group, almost certainly an Islamic one. I haven't heard of any other groups being active in Tunisia but that doesn't mean they don't exist. It's even possible that it was someone that had a grudge against the President.

Still, the good money is on ISIS being the ones responsible. If so, then ISIS is having a very successful couple of months. The managed four major attacks in four separate countries. They have also succeeded in drawing even more countries into the anti-ISIS coalition, which was a major goal for them. All of these attacks will be a massive boon to recruitment tool for ISIS as well. 

As for Tunisia, I am not sure that declaring a month long state of emergency is going to do much. What they need to do is track down this cell and destroy them. The state of emergency may help with that somewhat, but what they really need is to figure out who did it and bring them to justice. Suicide bombers rarely work alone, so I am guessing that there are other threats out there. And the next attack may be more effective then this one was.

One wonders if President Essebi could be the next target. It's clear that he is vulnerable since his presidential guard was attacked. It seems like it wouldn't be too hard to take a shot as him as well. So far there haven't been many assassination attempts on world leaders by ISIS or other terror groups. The only one I can think of is the recent attack in France where the terrorist failed completely to bomb a football stadium that French President Francois Hollande was attending. That attack failed but the next one could succeed. The European leaders are usually to well protected but this attack proves that Tunsia's President is vulnerable.