Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Russia confirms that their airplane that crashed in Egypt was taken down by a bomb, Putin vows retribution. Reuters

Vladimir Putin and his staff stand in a moment of silence before announcing the findings. Reuters

Russia has confirmed that a bomb destroyed the Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt, killing 224 people. Reuters. Offering up a $50 million bounty for any information on the killers, Putin vowed to hunt the terrorists anywhere on the planet and to bring them to justice. Previously, Russia had downplayed the chances of a terrorist attack, instead choosing to wait until all information had come in. But Russia's FSB found traces of TNT in the wreckage, and that TNT was not made domestically in Russia. ISIS's Sinai Province affiliate took credit for the attack. President Putin vowed to increase their air campaign in Syria and gave instructions to his ministers to propose possible plans. French sources indicate that Russia is already bombing the de-facto capital of ISIS, Raqqa, along with French fighter planes. 

My Comment:
I watched the video of Vladimir Putin making this announcement (it can be found in the linked article) and it's safe to say that the man is very, very angry. I don't doubt for a second that he is serious about getting retribution. Given how tough the Russians are, I am guessing things are going to get very bad for ISIS very quickly. Russians are no strangers to terrorism, but they tend to not use the waffling approach the United States has when it comes to foreign policy. 

Of course, Russia isn't the only one that is mad about ISIS. When I herd Francois Hollande, I heard the same anger and outrage that I heard in Vladimir Putin's voice. The French have gotten a lot of crap in the past few years about how they aren't a strong fighting force. That couldn't be further then the truth. The French have one of the most powerful military's in the world, and they may even draw the rest of Europe into the war against ISIS. Already they have invoked their rights as a member of the EU to get support from other member states. 

I'm hoping for a grand alliance between Russia, France, and the United States, along with most of Europe, riding into Syria and Iraq and just annihilating ISIS. Russian, French, and American soldiers, all fighting side by side, brothers in arms against a common enemy. A new stage of cooperation between the East and West. A reset of the looming 2nd cold war. And the utter and complete destruction of the Islamic State. 

Too bad it won't happen. I think it is clear that France is willing to work with Russia. They were bombing Raqqa at the same time Russia was so they had to have had some coordination with them. But I haven't heard of the United States sending in their own bombers. Indeed, President Obama seems more upset that Republicans are fighting him over Syrian Refugees then he does about the fates of the hundreds of French and Russian civilians that have been killed by ISIS. Already Obama has said that there will be no more boots on the ground, other then the 50 special forces already there. His main goal is to keep our ground troops out of the Iraq and Syrian wars, and I am guessing that would be the case if it was an American city or airplane attacked by ISIS. 

And I seriously doubt Obama would swallow his pride and work with Vladimir Putin. Barack Obama is many things but he does not seem to be a very forgiving person. Even during these trying times, he won't set aside his legitimate and imagined grievances with Putin to actually work with the Russians. His official policy is that Russia has no business being in Syria even though they were invited and even though they  just lost 224 civilians to ISIS. My hopes of a grand alliance between America and Russia to fight ISIS are completely unrealistic and Barack Obama is the reason why. 

I do wonder how far Russia is going to be willing to go. Obviously, they are going to step up their bombing campaign in Syria. They may even go into Iraq as well. I also wouldn't be surprised if they deployed more weapons, such as cruise missiles or even strategic bombers, to attack ISIS targets. They opened the war with a cruise missile strike, so they could do it again. Still, the people responsible for the destruction of the airliner aren't in Syria. They are in Egypt. So far, there have been no announcement of Russian participation in that war. And Russia would be fairly limited there as well. Egypt might not take kindly to any offensive action in the Sinai, and it would be difficult to pull off a commando raid. I think core ISIS is going to bear the brunt of the retribution while their affiliate will largely be unscathed. 

I have to say, this has been a good couple of weeks for ISIS. They have pulled off three major terrorist attacks. In addition to Russia and France, they also hit one of their other enemies, Hezbollah, hard in Lebanon. That's one hell of a butcher's bill, and it will be difficult for ISIS to top what they have already done. 

On the other hand they have pissed off two of the worlds most powerful countries. There will be hell to pay for ISIS, but as I have stated before, I expect them to survive. There still isn't an army out there willing and able to destroy ISIS. Troops on the ground are needed, and despite their rage, I don't see France or Russia deploying ground troops. And we won't do it either. Though these air raids will damage ISIS, they will still control territory and send out new attacks. I just don't see anything changing. And ISIS is still continuing to expand, unchecked, in other countries outside of Iraq and Syria. Nothing is being done against Boko Haram, and the Libyan, Afghan, and Yemeni affiliates of the Islamic State. This is a problem that is not going to go away anytime soon.

EDIT: Russia is deploying their strategic bombers to attack ISIS. Here's some footage from RT showing their bombers in action.

Allow me to geek out a bit because I love those Russian bombers. Beautiful aircraft. 

2 comments:

  1. I disagree with your point that The U.S, will not put boots on the ground. All it will take is an ISIS attack on American soil. Even a small one will ignite the nation for revenge and Obama will have to get involved.

    Also note that Russia isn't cooperating with the U.S. They are supporting the French. The end result is the same but I don't see much improvement
    in US Russia relations.

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  2. Thanks for the comment! I don't know about Obama though. Certainly, if there was another major attack, he would feel a lot a pressure to do something more. Right now the polls are opposed to sending in ground troops, but that would change. I just don't see Obama doing it though. He thinks his legacy is getting troops out of Iraq, sending back in is the last thing he wanted to do.

    As for Russia, I just wish Obama could put aside his pride and actually work with them. The French were able to do so, so he should be able to as well.

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