Egypt accidentally kills tourists, including Mexican citizens, after mistaking them for terrorists. AFP.

Tourist vehicles in Egypt. Yahoo/Reuters.

Egypt has killed 12 tourists, including several Mexican citizens in a botched raid against terrorists. AFP. It is unclear how many Mexicans died in the attack, but Egypt lists 12 dead and 10 wounded, many of which were Egyptians. According to the Mexican government at least two Mexicans died and 12 others were involved in the incident. The tourists arrived in Egypt on the 11th of this month and had journeyed to the Great Western Dessert to visit the Bahariya Oasis. The convoy of tourists had stopped for a meal when they were attacked by airplanes and helicopters. The dessert is often use as a base of operation for Islamic militants and the whole area has had warnings issued against it by various governments. ISIS is very active in the area and have greatly expanded their operations throughout the country. The deaths of Mexican citizen could further damage Egypt's critical tourism industry. The industry, already damaged by the revolutions and ISIS attacks, including the beheading of a Croatian national, may not recover anytime soon.  

My Comment:

Very bad news out of Egypt. It sounds like their security forces screwed up and screwed up badly. It sounds like they did not even try to confirm that their targets were actually terrorists. And that is scary. No doubt ISIS is a threat. But if Egypt is so jumpy that they just open up on any convoy that happens to be in the desert, then ISIS is already winning. Sure, these tourists were taking a major risk by being in this area, but it still boggles my mind that the Egyptians would just open up on them without confirming who they were. 

This will, of course, have a negative impact on tourism in Egypt. The revolutions hurt tourism for a long time but it was starting to recover. But this new war against ISIS is destroying any progress they had made towards recovery. The decapitation of Tomislav Salopek, though not a tourist, was an extreme example of how ISIS is targeting westerners in Egypt. And that is not the only example of ISIS doing so in the country or the region. This new tragedy just underscores the point. It is not safe to go to Egypt if you are a western tourist. There is a chance, not a gigantic chance mind you, that the terrorists or even the government could end up killing you.

Unfortunately, tourism is a massive part of the Egyptian economy. If they run out of tourists they could run out of money. And running out of money has massive effects throughout the country. First of all it's hard to fight a war if you can't pay your soldiers. Second, people will lose their jobs and see their quality of life decrease, which would make them ripe for recruitment. Finally, a bad economy could lead to yet another revolution or even more instability, which is bad enough on its own, but could also lead for an opening for ISIS. 

I'm not sure what is going on for the Egyptian security forces. So far in this war they are not exactly inspiring confidence. This tragedy is just the latest incident in a long string of embarrassments for the war against ISIS. They have suffered some defeats in the Sinai and have lost a few officials to murders and bombings. Which is surprising considering how much western support Egypt has received. After all they have F-15's, F-16's, Raphale's and Apache helicopters. It just goes to show that having the newest technology doesn't mean all that much if you don't have the wisdom to use them correctly or the intelligence to find the enemy. 

Even though this had very little to do with ISIS directly, I consider this a win for them. The damage this will do to Egyptian tourism will help them for the reasons I listed above. Egyptian security forces may also become more "gun shy" when they encounter convoys in the desert in an attempt to avoid this kind of tragedy. This could allow ISIS fighters escape when they might otherwise not be able to do so. 

Would I feel safe going to Egypt? Not really. I think you would be ok i you stayed in the tourist areas, but if you were to wander away form those areas you would be putting yourself at risk. Still, I wouldn't really feel any worse in Egypt then I would in Mexico. Mexico has its own war going on, and the cartels are almost as brutal as ISIS is and though they rarely target tourists they still bring a massive element of danger. On the other hand, if the unthinkable happens and ISIS takes over the country, this might be one of your last chances to see the ruins in Egypt. There is a good chance that if they gain power there, or even pull off some spectacular terror attacks, that the Pyramids, Sphinx and the various museums could all be destroyed. That alone is enough to hope that the Egyptian security forces get it together and push ISIS out of Egypt.