US and UK officials claim that the Russian plane downed in Egypt was likely destroyed by a bomb. AP

Mourners at a religious ceremony for the victims of the crash. Yahoo/AP

US and UK officials claim that the Russian plane destroyed over Egypt's Sinai peninsula may have been taken down by a bomb. AP. Intercepted communications are being cited as evidence that the plane was destroyed on purpose. ISIS's affiliate in Egypt, the Sinai province, is suspected as the culprits, and has taken credit for the attack. The attack is thought to be an independent operation, with no direction from ISIS's main command and control. The United Kingdom also issued a travel warning to its citizens warning them to not travel to Sharm el-Sheikh, which is where the flight originated. Several airplanes in Sharm el-Sheikh were grounded as well, stranding hundreds of British tourists. Ireland also canceled flights from the area. US officials ruled out a missile strike but were able to see a "thermal flash" via satellite before the plane crashed. Officials from Egypt and Russia are urging caution about assigning blame as their investigation is not complete. 

My Comment:

The circumstantial case for ISIS being responsible for the destruction of the Russian jetliner is growing stronger. I don't think the case is strong enough to hold up in court but I think we are past the "preponderance of evidence" standard. I think it's more likely then not that this was a terrorist attack. And I think the best candidate for responsibility is ISIS in the Sinai. I guess it is possible that some other organization, like AQAP, could have done so, the fact that ISIS is very active in the area points to their involvement. 

Though it hasn't been proven beyond a reasonable doubt that ISIS is responsible for this attack, it seems very possible. If it is true, then it is a huge step up from what ISIS has done in the past. Though ISIS has committed hundreds of atrocities and they are experts at terrorism, ISIS has, so far, avoided international terrorism of this kind. This is a major departure from their usual modus operandi. ISIS tends to limit there terrorist attacks into areas that they are operating in militarily. Most of their suicide bombings take place in Iraq or Syria and take place during offensives. In short, ISIS usually uses terrorism as a military tactic and not as a way to attack non-military targets, like this airliner is. 

So does this attack mean that ISIS is going to get more involved in this kind of terrorism? It sure looks like it. Though Sinai province is an affiliate rather then core ISIS, they are still ISIS. They still have the same goals as the main organization. I do think they came up with this operation alone though, without assistance from core ISIS. Perhaps this was even a rouge operation, as the attack may have severe consequences for core ISIS. Either way though Sinai province is showing that it is a much more dangerous then anyone gave them credit for. Until this point Sinai province had conducted quite a few attacks but nothing that made headlines like this. And though there will be consequences for this attack, it is a propaganda coup for ISIS. They got payback for Russia's involvement in the war in Syria. 

The question now becomes what Russia and Egypt will do about it. Russia is rather notorious for being tough on terrorism. They do not play around and they may end up having a military solution for ISIS. They are very likely to step up their campaign in Syria and may join the war in Iraq and even Egypt as well. At the very least, expect Russia to offer some kind of support for Egypt's war in the Sinai. No matter what though, if it does turn out that ISIS was responsible then there will be a crackdown. 

I mentioned before that no matter what this plane crash is going to hurt Egypt's tourism industry. That goes doubly true now. Nobody is going to want to go to a country where terrorism is so rampant. It's just not worth the risk of getting blown up or captured by ISIS. The fact that the UK and Ireland actually went as far as canceling flights means that people won't want to fly there. Not only is there the threat of terrorism, there is the threat of being stranded when flights are canceled. 

And I think that losing tourism hurts Egypt more then people realize. Tourism is huge there and a major source of income. If they lose tourists, they lose money and jobs. That could lead to even more instability. And Egypt isn't the most stable country to begin with. Even without the Islamic insurgency in Sinai, we are talking about a country that has had a revolution and a counter revolution in the past few years. Though we are a long way from ISIS taking over, or even taking and holding major territory, there is still a possibility that Egypt could fall to the extremists. 

Finally, there needs to be a major review of airport security through out the region. Even if this wasn't a terrorist attack, the fact that people think it is possible means that terrorists will step up their efforts to attack airliners. Since 9/11 attacks on airliners have been rare. Mostly because airport security has increased throughout the world. Airports are no longer "soft targets" and are generally hard to hit. It seems like the Egyptian airport was an exception. They need to figure out where the gap was in the security and close it as soon as possible.