Belgium still on lockdown after terrorist threats. Reuters.

A Belgian soldier on patrol in Brussels. Yahoo/Reuters. 

The entire country of Belgium continues to be on lockdown as at least two militants are loose in the city. Reuters. The level 4 alert, as high as Belgium's warning system goes, has lead to the shut down of Brussels metro system, the cancellation of several events and the closing of various attractions. Belgium has been at the center of the investigation into the Paris attacks, which killed 130 people. Two of the suicide bombers were living in the country and a third suspect, Salah Abdeslam, slipped back into Belgium after the attack. However, Abdelslam is not the only terror suspect at large at this time, and it is believed that at least two suspects are ready to commit violence. Soldiers have been deployed to protect the streets of Belgium, as the threat of a Paris style attack seems imminent. Defense officials will review if they can lift the alert today. 

My Comment:

I saw this story about Belgium yesterday, and then I thought that it was just an overreaction out of an abundance of caution. That could still be true, but the fact that the alert has been extended another day means that their might be some fire to all this smoke. The fact that Belgium was able to name one of the suspects makes me think that they had fairly strong evidence that Abdeslam is in Brussels and may be planning something. Who he is with and how much help he has is a mystery. 

Still, I wonder how likely an attack really is. After all, the whole country is on alert. Trying to attack now might be a bad idea. There are soldiers on the streets and it wouldn't take them all that long to react to any attack. My guess is that ISIS doesn't have the numbers to pull off the kind of multiple attacks that left the Paris security forces so off kilter. If an attack happens my guess is it will be by just a couple of terrorists alone. If that happens, don't expect anywhere near the casualties suffered in Paris, because Belgium security forces should be able to respond quickly. In that attack, much like the one in Norway by Anders Breivik, police and emergency responders were too busy dealing with one mass casualty event to react quickly to a second attack. That should not happen in this case as the terrorists are probably on their back foot. 

My guess is that these ISIS operatives are running for their lives. They will likely try to get back to Syria, or at the very least, out of Belgium. An attack right now will accomplish very little and I think ISIS knows that. Better to run away and plan for a larger, more coordinated attack on another day. It's even possible that these men are long gone or are even planning an attack on some other country. 

But if they are in Brussels, there is a decent chance that they could be tracked down and brought to justice. Just like the raid in Paris, expect a major shootout and perhaps even some explosions if they are found. After all, there isn't much more dangerous in this world then a man who is willing to die for a cause who is backed into a corner. If such a raid is to occur, I would expect casualties. I seriously doubt these men would surrender. 

The fact that these men are under such stress means they might think they have nothing to lose by attacking. After all, if they think they are dead men anyways, why not go out in a blaze of glory? They won't accomplish much but they would go out on their terms and would accomplish their goals of further terrorizing Europe. I don't think that's the most likely scenario, but it is possible. 

As for Belgium itself, it has done a very poor job integrating its Muslim population. The reason that these men have places to hide is because there are a lot of Muslims in Belgium that support terrorism. It's not a majority by any means but there are enough of them together that Belgium has been a hotbed of terrorist activity. As long as that is the case, the threat of terrorism will be real in Belgium and importing thousands of refugees and migrants will almost certainly make the situation worse. I don't have any solutions either, but sooner or later, there will be hell to pay. 

I do think that when this cell is finally tracked down and destroyed, Europe should calm down a bit. ISIS operatives will likely lie low for awhile as sooner or later the terror alerts will have to be pulled back and things will return to normal. When that happens there will be more opportunities but I am guessing that things are to hot in Europe right now for a major attack to happen. Anyone else that is in ISIS that isn't part of this network is likely to go into hiding for the time being.

That isn't to say that there isn't a threat. After all, the attack in Mali shows that there are other players then just ISIS, and the threat isn't just limited to Europe. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is the other major player in town and I am guessing that they are not going to be happy that their attacks on Chalrie Hebdo got blown out by ISIS's attack in Paris and Egypt. And that attack only happened because they got help, both before the attack and after, from members of ISIS. My guess is they are going to plan something big and flashy. Whether they pull it off or not is another matter entirely. And they are far from the only terrorist group in existence. The threat right now is global and there are plenty of other terrorist groups trying to make a name for themselves.  

Of course, there is always the risk of some lone nut-job, inspired by ISIS or other terrorist groups, could pull off an attack as well. These attacks almost always have less of an impact but they are still very dangerous, and they can occur across the globe. Much like the coverage of school shootings tends to inspire future school shooters, expect the massive coverage the events in Europe and elsewhere to inspire violence.

Finally, it seems like America hasn't had a major attack in awhile. The last major one that I can remember was the attack on the Navy recruitment centers. My memory could be wrong, but if that is true, it has been a long time since we have had any kind of major terrorist incident. We could be due for one. Given how active ISIS is and how many people have been exposed to their ideology, I would not be at all surprised if there was an attack before the year is over. At this point I think it is more likely then not. It might not be a huge terrorist attack like Paris, but I would be shocked if there wasn't at least one of these lone wolf terrorists that try something. Hopefully I'm wrong...