It's that time again. Tomorrow night at 8:00 pm central, the 4th Republican debate will begin. There are some major changes this time around. There is still an undercard debate but the people who will make up that debate will be very different. Gone are Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. Those two, along with Jim Gilmore, did not reach the 1% support needed to participate in the debate. Two other candidates who have been in the main debate so far, Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, have been demoted to the undercard debate due to having less then 2.5% in the polls. That means the main debate will only have 8 candidates.
What do I think of the new lineup? It should be pretty good. One of my biggest complaints about the debates so far is that with so many candidates, it's very hard to get a handle on any one candidate. Even with over-sized personality like Donald Trump, in all three debates there were long periods of time where he didn't get to talk. With only 8 people in the debate, the talking time for everyone left should be longer.
The two candidates that got demoted will have more speaking time as well but you have to think that not making the main debate hurts them. Though I'm not a huge fan of Mike Huckabee and I think Chris Christie is a joke, both of them had some really good moments in the past three debates. I hate to admit it but I think I will miss them a bit in the real debate.
It sounds like this debate will focus on the economy. That was supposed to be the focus during the last debate but CNBC didn't manage it well and it turned into more of a joke. I don't think that will happen this time but the economy is not my strong suit. I don't have a strong opinion on the economy either way, so it's a bit harder to do these predictions. Either way though, here's some of what I will think will happen:
-The moderators will be a lot less harsh then the CNBC debate. 95% They almost have to right? Short of charging the stage and punching one of the candidates in the mouth I don't see how they could be more hostile. Fox Business should be a lot more sympathetic to the Republicans then CNBC was.
-Ben Carson is going to continue to be hit hard. 75% He's been in the news a lot lately and none of it was because of his policies. I think some of the criticism against him is fair, but a lot of it is just a joke. If the moderators don't bring it up, I expect one or more of the candidates to do so.
-Carson will defend himself by blaming the media. 70%. It is the smart move, and could help him in the polls.
-Donald Trump will be the one to hit Ben Carson hard. 50% Hard to predict this one. So far Ben Carson and Donald Trump have been buddy buddy at the debates. And even though Trump has been hitting Carson in the media lately, he isn't his usual boisterous self. He's been holding back compared to how he treats everyone else. It will be interesting to see if he hits Carson hard or gives him a pass.
-Someone from the undercard debate, or someone who didn't even make it there, will drop out after the debate. 90% I've been wrong about this so far, but the Republican field has to make some cuts. Guys like Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore need to admit that they have no chance. Everyone that made the undercard debate should see the writing on the wall at this point.
-Jeb Bush will do further damage to his campaign. 80%. Jeb has been terrible in the first three debates and I don't see that changing. He was utterly unable to make an impact in the last one and was humbled by Marco Rubio. I fully expect him to be embarrassed again.
-Speaking of Rubio, expect him to be the one crowned winner of the debate by the media. 90%. To be fair, he has been very good so far in the debates, but it's clear now that he's the establishment candidate. Expect the media to throw their support in for him.
-There will be more attacks between the candidates. 100% This pretty much has to happen. In the last debate the candidates united after it was clear that the moderators were going to attack them the whole night. That shouldn't happen at this debate. Expect more fireworks in this one. No clue who is going to attack who though. Perhaps Rand Paul will attack Trump again?
-Expect Ted Cruz to drop in the polls. 75%. He got a boost last time because he fight with the moderators and bashed the media. That probably won't happen this time and he will have to win on policy, which should be much more difficult.
I'd ask some more questions I would like answered, but since this debate is focusing on the economy, a subject I am largely ignorant on, I'll skip it this time around. Almost all questions I would have would be about foreign policy, gun rights, immigration and cultural issues. The only thing I want to know about that might come up is Ben Carson. I have questions for him, but they are slightly different then the ones that are likely to come up in the debate...
Either way though I will be live tweeting the debate. Not sure when I will be starting but I expect to miss the undercard one. I'll definitely be tweeting the main debate though. As always, my twitter account can be found here. See you then!
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