Wednesday, July 1, 2015

ISIS linked militants stage major attacks in Egypt right after killing a judicial figure. AP.

Soldiers carry the coffin of prosecutor Hisham Barakat, who was killed by militants. Yahoo/AP/Egypt.

ISIS linked militants launched attacks that killed at least 50 soldiers just two days after the man in charge of prosecuting Islamic militants was assassinated. AP. Egypt's top prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, was killed by militants. At the funeral of Barakat, Egypt's President el-Sisi vowed retribution against the militants for the attack. It is possible that some Islamic extremists held Egypt will be executed as well. In response the ISIS linked Sinai Province group attacked multiple security checkpoints with car bombs and gunmen. 15 Army positions were attacked and three car bombs were used. Almost all of the attacks took place in the town of Sheikh Zuwied. Militants also captured several soldiers, weapons and vehicles during the attacks. In response Apache helicopters and air force assets were deployed to attack the militants, destroying at least one of the captured APC's and killing additional militants. The battle between the militants and Egyptian security forces is still ongoing.

My Comment:
This is an ongoing conflict and I expect the casualty figures on both sides to rise. It sounds like some of these checkpoints were utterly destroyed. At this point it seems to be a rather successful couple of days for the Sinai Province group. Since they are affiliated with ISIS it joins a rather long list of recent successes for ISIS. 

It's important to note that losing Hisham Barakat was a major blow to Egypt. He was responsible for the prosecution of thousands of Islamic militants. Though the second revolution in Egypt has been a mixed bag it is a good thing that the Muslim Brotherhood is out of power. But it lead to some serious problems, such as groups like Sinai Province gaining strength. Barakat was responsible for bringing those militants to justice. And now he is gone. 

As for the battle itself it seems that Sinai Province has learned the tactics that have served ISIS in Iraq and Syria so well. The use of car bombs to destroy checkpoints and open holes in defensive positions that gunmen can exploit is a signature ISIS tactic because it is so hard to defend against. The fact that the Sinai Province has picked up this tactic is very disturbing indeed and does not bode well for Egyptian security forces. 

It is also a very bad thing that these militants were able to capture both people and supplies. The soldiers captured by Sinai Province will likely suffer the fate that so many other people have after being taken alive by ISIS. The best case scenario is that they will be ransomed off, but it is much more likely that they will be executed, perhaps in horrific ways. ISIS does not treat their prisoners well, and I have no reason to think that Sinai Province will act any different.

They were also able to capture weapons and vehicles. I said earlier in the week that ISIS acts like a barbarian horde, dependent on what they raid from their enemies. This seems to be true in Egypt as well. The weapons and vehicles they captured will almost certainly be used against Egyptian security forces. 

The advances in Egypt follow a long string of successes for ISIS. Just in the last week or two they pulled off major terror attacks in Tunisia and Kuwait, inspired an attack in France, led a massive raid in Kobani that killed hundreds and are advancing against the Syrian government in Hasakah. And I fully expect more attacks to come. They called for a bloody month of Ramadan and so far they are living up to their goal. 

This attack/battle is the worst so far to happen in Egypt against ISIS and it really seems like ISIS is opening up yet another front in what is increasingly becoming a global war. The really disturbing part is that Egypt is more stable then most of the other countries that ISIS has popped up. Yes, Egypt has back to back, full circle revolutions, but compared to Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan its relatively stable. That's not saying much, but it shows how little room ISIS needs to work with. If ISIS can get a toehold in a relatively stable country like Egypt, then they can hit any country in the Middle East. 

I think it is abundantly clear that the war against ISIS is just beginning and it will be a long one as well. ISIS is no longer confined to Syria and Iraq and at this point even if they are defeated there, they will have enough affiliates and captured territory in other countries that they will be able to continue the war.  In short, we may be looking at a generational war with no easy out... 

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